In case you missed this …
I usually take these things with a grain of salt. We’ve just seen a lovely example of how embarrassingly fallible predictions of doom can be. But John Williams of Shadowstats is the very definition of credibility, so it’s worth taking a new look at his most recently updated predictions for hyperinflation. In a word, he says: SOON. Within the year.
Have you also noticed that we’re hearing the term “stagflation” again — meaning an economy that’s going nowhere while prices soar? Well, just a thought. “Stagflation” was something new when it reared its head in the 70s. Economists (presumably not of the Austrian variety) puzzled over it then, and now. What was that weird state and why was it upon us? Ah well. Before mainstreamers figured out the wherefores, Paul Volcker came along, gave the Fed a hard wrench, and that mysterious phenomenon of stagflation passed.
I don’t claim to be an expert. But there’s reason to think that “stagflation” is the larval stage of hyperinflation (sample + sample from very different parts of the political spectrum). Volcker may have wrenched us back from the brink all those years ago. Bernanke .. not likely.
Is Williams right? Dunno. I find it hard to work up the energy to go into Doom Mode, these days.
But if you had to bet on who had the best economic wisdom, who would you back? Williams? Or (pardon me while I spit tea all over the keyboard here) the Obama-Geithner-Bernanke team?