The Infamous Oregon LawhobbitJune 17, 2013 4:47 pm
The question is premature. You *first* need to have answers to the far more pertinent “where are you going?” and “why do you think it will be better if/when you get there?” ones.
Particularly regarding the second, if it’s going to be better when you get there, why aren’t you there now? And if it’s not going to be better, why are you going there?
Which is not to say that those questions aren’t answerable – I live fairly close to some railroad tracks. A derailment with Nasty Stuff Spewing Forth can certainly have me GTingTFO, but that would only be for a short time and anywhere where there’s not lethal levels of ammonia (say) in the air would be a Better Place To Be for a short period of time.
PatJune 17, 2013 5:31 pm
I agree with IOL. My first response, while reading this, was: if these things are imminent, why aren’t I gone? My next question was: where would I go?
My destination will probably be as bad as my current location – I’m sure people will be leaving from there also, for parts unknown. I can see where this – everyone leaving from every place – is a setup for mobile chaos.
Except in the very worst scenario (say, a nuclear attack where physical destruction is immediate and unhealthy) it might be better to stay put and bug in. And if you’re lucky, you may end up alone because everyone else has left!
WoodyJune 17, 2013 6:20 pm
On another blog Claire said, “Anyone who’s concerned about “when to get out of Dodge” should already have gone. Or go now.”
I can’t agree more! I thought it was time for me to get out of Dodge 30 years ago, and I left. If you don’t have a specific place to go AND have a relationship with the locals there you may as well stay where you are. The best solution is to live somewhere where you intend to bug in, not out.
CaribouJune 18, 2013 5:28 am
I, too, plan to bug in duriing short term disasters, but there may come a time when it is impossible to stay. The article is talking about those circumstances that change your situation from good to intolerable. As an example:
I am well-employed in a low-crime area with family very close. This is my #1 situation.
My #2 through #4 situations involve living with far-flung family or friends in other states/regions. At this point, those are not better situations than I have now: I would have to find permanent accommodations after arriving, and some form of employment. But if the nuke plant that’s 30 miles away decides to blow, I gotta leave.
What the article is talking about is when the #1 situation rapidly becomes #5. It’s not that the bug-out situation is better *now*, but that it will be better *then*, when the “balloon goes up”.
Matt, anotherJune 18, 2013 7:08 am
I agree with the consensus, that the time to move to a bug out location is probably before the baloon goes up. Of course, “baloon” is vastly different for everyone. Every person inclined to bug out needs to develop their own set of indicators for their specific and unique circumstances. This is not a one size fits all determinator. For some the balloon is natural disaster, others it is “societal” collapse, might bea declaration of martial law for others. Wide spread economic collapse (banks closed for extended times) might be triggers of other. It is always worthwhile to discuss what ifs etc but wide spread conclusions can’t alwauys be reached.
Matt, anotherJune 18, 2013 7:12 am
Maybe the balloon is a rogue federal agency that spies on everybody (masters and slaves) and does not consider themselves accountable to anybody and can and probably has amassed enough data to decide elections and blackmail the courts, politicians, banks etc.
WoodyJune 18, 2013 8:59 am
Matt, you make some good points. Since my first comment I have been thinking that maybe the balloon has been released and is on its way up as we speak. It seems to me that Joe and Jane average might be starting to catch on to the fact we are living in a defacto police state. How they will react remains to be seen.
just waitingJune 18, 2013 9:11 am
We got to experience a preview of collapse in the aftermath of Sandy. Banks, stores and gas stations all closed for days. Isolated for 3 days by downed trees blocking all roads. No power/gas/phone for 12 days. No internet, no news except sat tv, which never went down. The only thing missing was the golden horde exiting the cities.
IOLH, I been asking those same questions to people of late. “If you’re prepped for a new life, why not just start living it now?” “Because I don’t HAVE to yet” was the most popular reply. In the end, its an issue of comfort. No one expects their post event existence to be as comfortable as their day to day is now. Folks are unwilling to give up all the cushy crap they have unless they absolutely have to.
One has to assess what “better off” means. Coming through Sandy, there was nowhere better for me to be than right here where I am. Having sufficient preps and the know how to use them, 12 days without electric or gas was barely noticeable, and never really became a hardship. Life went on, an end was always in sight. But it was only because the masses knew that the situation was temporary, the lights would come back on.
But if there was a major event, and the lights aren’t coming back on, well then I’m in a crappy place, smack dab between the 2 major east/west roads exiting a major east coast city. I’m right in the path of the horde, which could number in the millions. Things would turn to crap really quick. But I would always have the advantage on being on my own ground.
Better off is a hard thing to judge.
BonnieJune 18, 2013 12:06 pm
The first list, from Brian & Daron Payne, was terribly unhelpful:
1. Empty shelves in grocery & hardware stores
2. Unexpected bank holidays/Run on ATM’s
3. Large groups of looters
4. Loss of life due to the police and emergency services being overloaded
By the time these things are happening, it may be too late.
I remember a sf story from way back (Heinlein?) about knowing when to bug out. A scientist (or something) was at a bar, telling the bartender all the bad stuff going on. The bartender asked when would be the time to leave the city & the scientist said, “Now.” The bartender immediately left. After he was some miles away, he got to wondering if he should have listened to the scientist, who didn’t take his own advice. As he turned to look at the city – it was bombed.
We weren’t really thinking about TEOTWAWKI when we moved to our present home, but we now think of it as our haven. Without electricty things would be rough (I’ll really miss the Internet!) but livable.
God bless,
Bonnie
Opportunity Farm
The Infamous Oregon LawhobbitJune 18, 2013 12:44 pm
Gawd, I had to think for a moment who “IOL” and “IOLH” were… 😀
*
Bonnie’s right – that first list is not all that helpful. If the shelves are already empty and you were planning to head out to “the better place,” you’d be what we in the Army used to call “a target.” Empty shelves and … oh look, a car, with people, going somewhere. I’ll bet they have stuff….
There’s a youtube aftermath video of that kind somewhere, can’t recall its name except it gets kinda mocked for all the “mistakes.” But, really, JW has a serious point – most people *are* going to just hunker down where they are, and I suspect that a lot of those “I got my bugout bag and my bugout vehicle and my bugout place” are going to be … disappointed … with the results. Dr. Bruce Clayton covered a lot of the thinking in his Life After Doomsday book, and it boils down to “particularly for long term TEOTWAKI stuff, you want to be where you’re going to be, and be established there.” It may be nice to think that you’ve got a well-stocked little place in Smalltown, but there’s a pretty good chance that everybody in Smalltown KNOWS you’ve got a well stocked little place, and while being a Regular Resident is not necessarily a guarantee of better treatment, most places are far less likely to be taking stuff from a well-known local – as Woody suggests there. Not to mention that as an established local you know (or should) a lot of the local players – city government, police, county folks – and may even have had a chance to invest some time in helping or even BEING some of that.
Bottom line – at least from my point of view – somebody hoping to use his BOB and BOV and BOL for long term, is simply somebody who’s likely to be a better equipped …. what do they call those … oh yes, “refugee.” And a quick look around the world doesn’t show any group of refugees doing real well. Surviving, yes. Which, I suppose, beats the alternative. But one would HOPE to try and do more than just “survive” after The Big Awful happens….
ENthePeasantJune 18, 2013 1:57 pm
One my most cherished beliefs is that everything happens at the worst time. Let’s just say you have a really nice place in Cowley, Wyoming. You’re well prepared, have good community relations, and are surrounded by a large Mormon population with a strong sense of right and wrong, not to mention a huge sense of community. I guarantee you when things go south you will be at a hospital in Denver being treated for cancer. Or you might be on a sales trip to Las Vegas with a broken leg and no gun (“Hey, I’ll only be gone for two days…”). At best you’ll have taken that long trip to Costco to pick up some supplies and your vehicle will be out of fuel. You intended to fill up when you arrived but the Costco gas station was swamped with cars so you elected to wait until you were on the way home. You’ll be inside and the have just put that 200 lbs of Red Rose Rice in your cart when the lights go out. You’ll get to your fuel deficient truck quickly because being a prepper you know this could be the end. Of course with less than a 1/4 tank of gas you don’t get far. And then you begin to walk with your bugout bag which for some reason only has two 16 oz water bottles in it… I’m not saying that preps are useless just making the point that it will never go as we hoped/planned. Often times we’re either two early or two late for the balloon and timing is everything. Mental and physical toughness are your only true currency at times.
PatJune 18, 2013 2:06 pm
LawHobbitt – Sorry about “IOL”. I was just ranting to myself yesterday about someone using the acronym “TLOO” without explaining it, and then today I use an unexplained acronym myself…
“But one would HOPE to try and do more than just “survive” after The Big Awful happens….”
Well, that might take a while.
I’m thinking of a political upheaval now. If there’s an internal war, there will be military action at local, State and federal levels. Several political factions will no doubt be eager to take over the country including, I’m reluctant to admit, some “libertarian” factions (LP, Tea Party, etc) wanting to prove their point – the result being mini- (or maxi-)tyranny from all quarters.
If there’s no war, but an economic disaster, there will be little or no income and more unemployment than now, accompanied by a depression: no regular/stable bank, utilities or phone service; manufacturing will be held up by the inability to know what is needed or who needs it; only food companies might be turning out products – but who will be able to afford the food prices?
Even those who can find a moderately-safe place to run will do no more than “survive” for a while; how long that “while” lasts will depend on many unknowns at the present.
WoodyJune 18, 2013 2:11 pm
EN, Ain’t it the truth! The only preps you have that really matter when the chips are down are between your ears.
TahnJune 18, 2013 5:54 pm
The balloons are going up all the time but they are small ones and not everyone see’s them all. Some folk see none and some see a few and others see most of them. I’m thinking of you Claire. You have seen the small ones for years and thank you for pointing them out, so that I could see them too.
At some point, all the small balloons that have been released over the years will converge in the sky to become one big balloon. Then everyone will notice and suffer.
IndividualAudienceMemberJune 18, 2013 6:47 pm
Pat wrote, “Several political factions will no doubt be eager to take over the country including, I’m reluctant to admit, some “libertarian” factions…”
Ha! That’s funny.
Seems to me, if they were libertarian, they wouldn’t want to “take over the country” and if “they” do, well, they’re not really libertarian.
That’s my take anyway.
“mini- (or maxi-)tyranny from all quarters.” HaHa.
Thanks for the laugh.
The flies will have conquered the fly paper completely?
[Hey, EN, maybe baby spoons isn’t a bad thing to have.]
IndividualAudienceMemberJune 18, 2013 6:54 pm
Tahn wrote, “At some point, all the small balloons that have been released over the years will converge in the sky to become one big balloon. Then everyone will notice and suffer.”
Seems like there’s truth to that, in more ways than one.
Was the first pole laid on the ground the balloon?
Or was it the final pole?
Or was it when the farmer first came to town?
Ah, never mind, I’m just thinking out loud.
A.G.June 18, 2013 10:13 pm
Somewhat timely, I had this in my inbox from Tony Nester yesterday.
Survival Tips When You Have To Evacuate
With wildfire season at our heels in the western US and many of our friends in Colorado dealing with the current blaze, I wanted to pass on some things we have done with our evacuation strategies with regards to Financial Survival.
We have been fortunate so far- this is the second summer my family and I have not had to evacuate our house in the past 8 years due to wildfires around Flagstaff. We still have our gear, documents and valuables in place so we can pull out within 15 minutes if need be. Much has been written about bug-out bags and survival gear but there is often little mentioned about how to account for one’s financial survival in the immediate aftermath of a disaster and what critical items should accompany you when bailing out.
The following are tips we cover in our Urban Survival classes and I recomment to students of mine who are seeking to be more prepared for a crisis at home.
Your Financial Survival: Essential Documents
These documents can be critical in re-establishing your life if you lose everything else in your home during a disaster. All too often people assemble excellent survival kits only to forget about the documents below during the rush associated with evacuating.
Birth certificates
Tax returns
Marriage license
Social Security cards
Children’s immunization records
Passport
Bank statements & passwords
Property deeds
Medical insurance
Will
Drug prescriptions
Pet & vet records
Insurance policies
Military discharge papers
Firearm serial numbers
Pertinent computer CDs or Flashdrives
Save what you can on a CD or flashdrive and also have hard copies. You may even want to have a back-up CD or Flash- drive stored at a relative’s house. Lastly, do not forget to include your laptop when you bail out. Copies of the above documents can be stored in a small Tupperware container and located next to your Home Bail-Out Kit or in a safe.
Another tip is to upload all of your critical documents (passport, birth cert, etc…) in PDF form to your webmail account. Then you will have access to it when traveling, especially important if your items get stolen or confiscated when traveling internationally. While it is not a survival priority, consider including family photo albums and any irreplaceable heirlooms if space permits.
The question is premature. You *first* need to have answers to the far more pertinent “where are you going?” and “why do you think it will be better if/when you get there?” ones.
Particularly regarding the second, if it’s going to be better when you get there, why aren’t you there now? And if it’s not going to be better, why are you going there?
Which is not to say that those questions aren’t answerable – I live fairly close to some railroad tracks. A derailment with Nasty Stuff Spewing Forth can certainly have me GTingTFO, but that would only be for a short time and anywhere where there’s not lethal levels of ammonia (say) in the air would be a Better Place To Be for a short period of time.
I agree with IOL. My first response, while reading this, was: if these things are imminent, why aren’t I gone? My next question was: where would I go?
My destination will probably be as bad as my current location – I’m sure people will be leaving from there also, for parts unknown. I can see where this – everyone leaving from every place – is a setup for mobile chaos.
Except in the very worst scenario (say, a nuclear attack where physical destruction is immediate and unhealthy) it might be better to stay put and bug in. And if you’re lucky, you may end up alone because everyone else has left!
On another blog Claire said, “Anyone who’s concerned about “when to get out of Dodge” should already have gone. Or go now.”
I can’t agree more! I thought it was time for me to get out of Dodge 30 years ago, and I left. If you don’t have a specific place to go AND have a relationship with the locals there you may as well stay where you are. The best solution is to live somewhere where you intend to bug in, not out.
I, too, plan to bug in duriing short term disasters, but there may come a time when it is impossible to stay. The article is talking about those circumstances that change your situation from good to intolerable. As an example:
I am well-employed in a low-crime area with family very close. This is my #1 situation.
My #2 through #4 situations involve living with far-flung family or friends in other states/regions. At this point, those are not better situations than I have now: I would have to find permanent accommodations after arriving, and some form of employment. But if the nuke plant that’s 30 miles away decides to blow, I gotta leave.
What the article is talking about is when the #1 situation rapidly becomes #5. It’s not that the bug-out situation is better *now*, but that it will be better *then*, when the “balloon goes up”.
I agree with the consensus, that the time to move to a bug out location is probably before the baloon goes up. Of course, “baloon” is vastly different for everyone. Every person inclined to bug out needs to develop their own set of indicators for their specific and unique circumstances. This is not a one size fits all determinator. For some the balloon is natural disaster, others it is “societal” collapse, might bea declaration of martial law for others. Wide spread economic collapse (banks closed for extended times) might be triggers of other. It is always worthwhile to discuss what ifs etc but wide spread conclusions can’t alwauys be reached.
Maybe the balloon is a rogue federal agency that spies on everybody (masters and slaves) and does not consider themselves accountable to anybody and can and probably has amassed enough data to decide elections and blackmail the courts, politicians, banks etc.
Matt, you make some good points. Since my first comment I have been thinking that maybe the balloon has been released and is on its way up as we speak. It seems to me that Joe and Jane average might be starting to catch on to the fact we are living in a defacto police state. How they will react remains to be seen.
We got to experience a preview of collapse in the aftermath of Sandy. Banks, stores and gas stations all closed for days. Isolated for 3 days by downed trees blocking all roads. No power/gas/phone for 12 days. No internet, no news except sat tv, which never went down. The only thing missing was the golden horde exiting the cities.
IOLH, I been asking those same questions to people of late. “If you’re prepped for a new life, why not just start living it now?” “Because I don’t HAVE to yet” was the most popular reply. In the end, its an issue of comfort. No one expects their post event existence to be as comfortable as their day to day is now. Folks are unwilling to give up all the cushy crap they have unless they absolutely have to.
One has to assess what “better off” means. Coming through Sandy, there was nowhere better for me to be than right here where I am. Having sufficient preps and the know how to use them, 12 days without electric or gas was barely noticeable, and never really became a hardship. Life went on, an end was always in sight. But it was only because the masses knew that the situation was temporary, the lights would come back on.
But if there was a major event, and the lights aren’t coming back on, well then I’m in a crappy place, smack dab between the 2 major east/west roads exiting a major east coast city. I’m right in the path of the horde, which could number in the millions. Things would turn to crap really quick. But I would always have the advantage on being on my own ground.
Better off is a hard thing to judge.
The first list, from Brian & Daron Payne, was terribly unhelpful:
1. Empty shelves in grocery & hardware stores
2. Unexpected bank holidays/Run on ATM’s
3. Large groups of looters
4. Loss of life due to the police and emergency services being overloaded
By the time these things are happening, it may be too late.
I remember a sf story from way back (Heinlein?) about knowing when to bug out. A scientist (or something) was at a bar, telling the bartender all the bad stuff going on. The bartender asked when would be the time to leave the city & the scientist said, “Now.” The bartender immediately left. After he was some miles away, he got to wondering if he should have listened to the scientist, who didn’t take his own advice. As he turned to look at the city – it was bombed.
We weren’t really thinking about TEOTWAWKI when we moved to our present home, but we now think of it as our haven. Without electricty things would be rough (I’ll really miss the Internet!) but livable.
God bless,
Bonnie
Opportunity Farm
Gawd, I had to think for a moment who “IOL” and “IOLH” were… 😀
*
Bonnie’s right – that first list is not all that helpful. If the shelves are already empty and you were planning to head out to “the better place,” you’d be what we in the Army used to call “a target.” Empty shelves and … oh look, a car, with people, going somewhere. I’ll bet they have stuff….
There’s a youtube aftermath video of that kind somewhere, can’t recall its name except it gets kinda mocked for all the “mistakes.” But, really, JW has a serious point – most people *are* going to just hunker down where they are, and I suspect that a lot of those “I got my bugout bag and my bugout vehicle and my bugout place” are going to be … disappointed … with the results. Dr. Bruce Clayton covered a lot of the thinking in his Life After Doomsday book, and it boils down to “particularly for long term TEOTWAKI stuff, you want to be where you’re going to be, and be established there.” It may be nice to think that you’ve got a well-stocked little place in Smalltown, but there’s a pretty good chance that everybody in Smalltown KNOWS you’ve got a well stocked little place, and while being a Regular Resident is not necessarily a guarantee of better treatment, most places are far less likely to be taking stuff from a well-known local – as Woody suggests there. Not to mention that as an established local you know (or should) a lot of the local players – city government, police, county folks – and may even have had a chance to invest some time in helping or even BEING some of that.
Bottom line – at least from my point of view – somebody hoping to use his BOB and BOV and BOL for long term, is simply somebody who’s likely to be a better equipped …. what do they call those … oh yes, “refugee.” And a quick look around the world doesn’t show any group of refugees doing real well. Surviving, yes. Which, I suppose, beats the alternative. But one would HOPE to try and do more than just “survive” after The Big Awful happens….
One my most cherished beliefs is that everything happens at the worst time. Let’s just say you have a really nice place in Cowley, Wyoming. You’re well prepared, have good community relations, and are surrounded by a large Mormon population with a strong sense of right and wrong, not to mention a huge sense of community. I guarantee you when things go south you will be at a hospital in Denver being treated for cancer. Or you might be on a sales trip to Las Vegas with a broken leg and no gun (“Hey, I’ll only be gone for two days…”). At best you’ll have taken that long trip to Costco to pick up some supplies and your vehicle will be out of fuel. You intended to fill up when you arrived but the Costco gas station was swamped with cars so you elected to wait until you were on the way home. You’ll be inside and the have just put that 200 lbs of Red Rose Rice in your cart when the lights go out. You’ll get to your fuel deficient truck quickly because being a prepper you know this could be the end. Of course with less than a 1/4 tank of gas you don’t get far. And then you begin to walk with your bugout bag which for some reason only has two 16 oz water bottles in it… I’m not saying that preps are useless just making the point that it will never go as we hoped/planned. Often times we’re either two early or two late for the balloon and timing is everything. Mental and physical toughness are your only true currency at times.
LawHobbitt – Sorry about “IOL”. I was just ranting to myself yesterday about someone using the acronym “TLOO” without explaining it, and then today I use an unexplained acronym myself…
“But one would HOPE to try and do more than just “survive” after The Big Awful happens….”
Well, that might take a while.
I’m thinking of a political upheaval now. If there’s an internal war, there will be military action at local, State and federal levels. Several political factions will no doubt be eager to take over the country including, I’m reluctant to admit, some “libertarian” factions (LP, Tea Party, etc) wanting to prove their point – the result being mini- (or maxi-)tyranny from all quarters.
If there’s no war, but an economic disaster, there will be little or no income and more unemployment than now, accompanied by a depression: no regular/stable bank, utilities or phone service; manufacturing will be held up by the inability to know what is needed or who needs it; only food companies might be turning out products – but who will be able to afford the food prices?
Even those who can find a moderately-safe place to run will do no more than “survive” for a while; how long that “while” lasts will depend on many unknowns at the present.
EN, Ain’t it the truth! The only preps you have that really matter when the chips are down are between your ears.
The balloons are going up all the time but they are small ones and not everyone see’s them all. Some folk see none and some see a few and others see most of them. I’m thinking of you Claire. You have seen the small ones for years and thank you for pointing them out, so that I could see them too.
At some point, all the small balloons that have been released over the years will converge in the sky to become one big balloon. Then everyone will notice and suffer.
Pat wrote, “Several political factions will no doubt be eager to take over the country including, I’m reluctant to admit, some “libertarian” factions…”
Ha! That’s funny.
Seems to me, if they were libertarian, they wouldn’t want to “take over the country” and if “they” do, well, they’re not really libertarian.
That’s my take anyway.
“mini- (or maxi-)tyranny from all quarters.” HaHa.
Thanks for the laugh.
The flies will have conquered the fly paper completely?
[Hey, EN, maybe baby spoons isn’t a bad thing to have.]
Tahn wrote, “At some point, all the small balloons that have been released over the years will converge in the sky to become one big balloon. Then everyone will notice and suffer.”
Seems like there’s truth to that, in more ways than one.
Causes me wonder if these balloons:
http://www.sfgate.com/business/technology/article/Google-begins-launching-Internet-beaming-balloons-4602494.php#photo-4788768
… might have some other future than just broadcasting the internet?
One last thought: in the story about The Wild and Free Pigs of the Okefenokee Swamp
http://www.stentorian.com/politics/freepigs.html
Was the first pole laid on the ground the balloon?
Or was it the final pole?
Or was it when the farmer first came to town?
Ah, never mind, I’m just thinking out loud.
Somewhat timely, I had this in my inbox from Tony Nester yesterday.
Survival Tips When You Have To Evacuate
With wildfire season at our heels in the western US and many of our friends in Colorado dealing with the current blaze, I wanted to pass on some things we have done with our evacuation strategies with regards to Financial Survival.
We have been fortunate so far- this is the second summer my family and I have not had to evacuate our house in the past 8 years due to wildfires around Flagstaff. We still have our gear, documents and valuables in place so we can pull out within 15 minutes if need be. Much has been written about bug-out bags and survival gear but there is often little mentioned about how to account for one’s financial survival in the immediate aftermath of a disaster and what critical items should accompany you when bailing out.
The following are tips we cover in our Urban Survival classes and I recomment to students of mine who are seeking to be more prepared for a crisis at home.
Your Financial Survival: Essential Documents
These documents can be critical in re-establishing your life if you lose everything else in your home during a disaster. All too often people assemble excellent survival kits only to forget about the documents below during the rush associated with evacuating.
Birth certificates
Tax returns
Marriage license
Social Security cards
Children’s immunization records
Passport
Bank statements & passwords
Property deeds
Medical insurance
Will
Drug prescriptions
Pet & vet records
Insurance policies
Military discharge papers
Firearm serial numbers
Pertinent computer CDs or Flashdrives
Save what you can on a CD or flashdrive and also have hard copies. You may even want to have a back-up CD or Flash- drive stored at a relative’s house. Lastly, do not forget to include your laptop when you bail out. Copies of the above documents can be stored in a small Tupperware container and located next to your Home Bail-Out Kit or in a safe.
Another tip is to upload all of your critical documents (passport, birth cert, etc…) in PDF form to your webmail account. Then you will have access to it when traveling, especially important if your items get stolen or confiscated when traveling internationally. While it is not a survival priority, consider including family photo albums and any irreplaceable heirlooms if space permits.