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Borepatch: The Inevitability of Secession

Part II: implications for the states.

I haven’t yet read this thoroughly (dogs are guilt-tripping me about their morning walk). Given that I live in a blue state, but in a local area that is quite a different shade of blue than the big metros, I might weave a few thoughts of my own from Borepatch’s narrative later.


  1. KiA
    KiA March 21, 2015 9:30 am

    are we still in the no one can predict the future theme?

    i didn’t buy his “inevitability” concept. it was a quick sell too. maybe he should have had parts 1-3 explaining that portion and then continued on to the implications thereof.

  2. Kent McManigal
    Kent McManigal March 21, 2015 10:02 am

    I find this talk of “Red” and “Blue” silly. Both are fans of Big Government- they just want their own type of socialism while complaining about the other guy’s particular brand. They are more similar to each other than to me.

    The area I live in is overwhelmingly Red- they are strongly bigoted against liberty of the types they don’t like- especially if it goes against their religion (God or military, in particular). They love the socialism that props up their religion/s and hate the sort that props up other religions.

    In any secession, I would still be on the dangerous side, outnumbered, no matter whether it was a “Blue” or a “Red” side this area went with.

  3. jed
    jed March 21, 2015 10:09 am

    No, we can’t predict the future. Except as noted by Publicola previously, where some possible outcomes have such high odds, that we are near certainty.

    However, we can examine our current situation, and note what outcomes have resulted from similar situations in the past. Granted, the US is not Weimar Germany, nor Argentina, and there are certainly complicating factors not present in those situations. But we can still examine the current fiscal situation, and see that it does not bode well. I suspect this is a bit more reliable a predictor than reading entrails.

    My main disagreement with Borepatch is that I think in terms of Balkanization, rather than seccession.

  4. Joel
    Joel March 21, 2015 10:58 am

    While I agree with Kent that the red/blue thing is a silly diversion, that doesn’t necessarily invalidate what Borepatch is trying to say. The division that has arisen isn’t between statists vs. freedomistas, after all. It is precisely between the red statists and the blue statists, as Kent suggests. So red-blue might be relevant.

    And also kind of depressing because assuming secession actually resulted in only two states, neither would have any use for us.

  5. Fred
    Fred March 22, 2015 10:08 am

    Awesome dog link Shel.Thank you,I needed a warm fuzzy today.

    I’ll stay off the secessionist thread,dont see any relevance in my lifetime.

  6. Claire
    Claire March 22, 2015 11:21 am

    Shel — I agree, thanks for the dog story. That was one of the best I’ve seen in quite a while! Loved it from start to finish.

    As to Alex Jones and InfoWars, I’ll pay attention to their claims when their track record is one hell of a lot better than it’s always been.

  7. Laird
    Laird March 22, 2015 11:48 am

    Unfortunately, there is not much original or (to me, anyway) useful in Part 2 of this series. Everyone knows that the red/blue divide is messier than simple state-level charts would imply, and that the liberal/conservative (modern definitions) division is largely along urban/rural lines. Nothing new there; in fact, it was much the same story in 1776, where there was significant pro-England sentiment among the colonists, especially among the merchant/banking classes. (That war was as much an internal civil war as it was an external war of secession.) As to Borepatch’s point that the triggering event will likely be economic in nature, that is probably correct but I don’t think he really understands it. A federal bailout of bankrupt states and/or their pension funds? That would be controversial, but not fatal. The government would just print* the money and in the end no one will much care. What’s another few trillion added to an already incomprehensively huge national debt? True, the US is not Weimar Germany or Argentina, but there are some striking parallels. As Mark Twain (supposedly) said, history doesn’t repeat itself but it rhymes, and it is doing so now.

    The real triggering event will be a collapse of the dollar and with it the US banking system. That’s probably not going to happen tomorrow (although, as Hemingway said about bankruptcy, it will happen gradually, then suddenly), but the seeds have already been planted and we’re in the “gradually” phase now. This isn’t the place for a discussion of the dollar’s loss of its status of the world’s reserve currency, or the implications of negative interest rates in Europe and the China’s creation (with European support) of the new Asian International Investment Bank, but when the tipping point is reached and the dollar eventually loses its cachet, everything (including national sovereignty) will be up for grabs. That will indeed be an interesting time.

    Perhaps Part 3 will contain some nuggets of real insight.

    * Yes, I know it wouldn’t physically print more greenbacks, but this is a useful shorthand for the actual process of creating electronic pseudo-money and monetizing the debt.

  8. Shel
    Shel March 22, 2015 12:57 pm

    There are (always) further disturbing items; the first of which a friend vetted with three people and fond it to be true:

    Another friend told me of a record number of rplacement of military officers; I just did a search and picked this somewhat dated article as representative: I have no reason to believe the trend has changed.

    And there seems to be a legitimate question that the “regular corps and ready reserve corps” buried in Obamacare may become the equivalent of the civilian police force Obama said he wanted prior to his election as president:

    I’m limited, as I think we all are, by how much of this stuff I can stand to look at.

  9. Laird
    Laird March 23, 2015 7:52 am

    Shel, I don’t doubt that. But he’s talking about the senior officer corps (primarily generals), and they’re not the ones who would actually be doing the firing. That’s the grunts on the front line, and I doubt that many would follow such an order.

  10. Paul Bonneau
    Paul Bonneau March 23, 2015 9:43 am

    [And also kind of depressing because assuming secession actually resulted in only two states, neither would have any use for us.]

    Why would it be only two states?

    Anyway, they will have to make room for us, somehow. There are too many anarchists to ignore, and we are heavily armed. Also, they will need us when the shooting starts. They may try to stab us in the back when the shooting ends, but we will be ready for that.

    I wouldn’t worry much about Obama purging the military ranks. The generals may foam at the mouth, but that does not mean all the colonels or majors or captains will follow. And don’t forget those surly grunts who will be fragging whomever gets too far out of line.

  11. Shel
    Shel March 23, 2015 1:46 pm

    Regarding the reaction of our military, I think it’s just hard to tell. I remember another article mentioned allowing non-citizens in the Army; I would think their loyalty to the Constitution might be questionable. And the fragging occurred to me also; I’ve heard – not first hand – rumor of just that possibility. It may turn out like the news used to be about third world countries, where the question would be “Whose side will the military be on?”

  12. Fred
    Fred March 23, 2015 2:10 pm

    I dont think our kids in the military will fire on our own grammas,but the blue helmets might.Or maybe the govs new ally,the Muslim peacekeepers,or our Chinese troopers? Who knows what allegiances could pop up.
    Really,Im just not too concerned any of this is on the horizon.Im more concerned the saber rattling with Russia is the event to get rid of 90% of us,the BIG sociopath play seems as likely as anything in my head.I truly believe the elites want 90% of us cockroaches as they call us gone.

  13. Fred
    Fred March 23, 2015 2:14 pm

    I can picture the elites riding it out on their crazy yachts,in their immense underground bunkers/cities,while the bombs are dropping.The funny part is,after a few years of global winters there may be nothing left for them to reclaim.Nothing like megalomaniacs to play God.

  14. Paul Bonneau
    Paul Bonneau March 23, 2015 7:16 pm

    [I dont think our kids in the military will fire on our own grammas,but the blue helmets might.]

    One can only hope the ruling class will be so stupid as to bring foreign troops in. How better to enrage their opposition?

    I don’t think they are that dumb, even if this is a favorite paranoid fantasy of some. No, our problem will be with locally-grown praetorians. Lew Rockwell had a story about the pay level of the FBI just today.

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