(By Jake MacGregor with a few small edits/clarifications by me.)
THIS IS A DRILL
The following is ONLY a drill.
THIS IS TO BE TREATED AS REAL BUT IS ONLY A DRILL.
Situation: Last Night the European Union currency (Euro) collapsed. Overnight, markets crashed as uncertainty roiled the world. The President is set to make a closed-door address to a joint session of Congress at 11 AM Eastern. The Stock Market is closed until further notice. Banks have closed their doors with a taped-up sign reading, “Due to an Executive Order 19-173A all Banks, Credit Unions and Savings & Loans are ordered to close pending further notice.“
What is happening in our community(s):
· ATMs are out of money – fist fights break out as people struggle to try getting their money out of them
· Gas stations report that credit & debit cards are not working. Tempers flare as people report some stations ‘gouging’ customers charging over $10/gallon. Even so, many stations are out of gas.
· Grocery store shelves empty within hours. The radio replays sounds of gunshots at a Walmart in Falcon, CO. Those broadcasts are replaced with the “Boston Pops.”
· Despite the turmoil, college kids around the country rally in their courtyards and start bonfires and celebrate the “downfall of the 1%!”
· TV news shows the outbreak of mayhem and violence for about an hour THEN is replaced with PBS programming on every station. Every channel plays Ken Burns “Jazz” with a rolling banner assuring the public that programming will resume after the joint session of Congress.
· Telephone lines are jammed. All most people can get on land or cell phones are rapid busy signals.
. The Internet redirects people to a Department of Homeland Security Page with generic messages meant to calm us down.
· Neighbors stop by and rumors become rife: “China nuked Israel!” “President Obama is going to cancel everybody’s mortgage and credit cards – ain’t it great!” “I heard Cuban mercenaries are invading Texas from Mexico.”
· People flock to their local churches. Impromptu services are held around the clock.
· Hospital emergency rooms fill with robbery victims, heart attacks and fights.
· Some towns call in all their deputies or cops; some towns find that about half won’t come in as they are hunkered home to care for their families.
· Some “Rambo” types dress up in camo and patrol their streets. Some neighborhoods block their entrance with cars or burning tires.
KEY QUESTIONS:
1. What do you do?
2. Do you have cash on hand to “last-minute shop?” If so, what do you buy?
3. How much gas or diesel do you have on hand? (measure it & calculate how far you can get)
4. How do you communicate with family or friends?
5. What do you do for security?
6. How do you get news?
7. When you get this drill, where is everyone in your immediate family and how do they get home?
8. When you get this do you have your personal defense firearm with you? Do you have extra ammo?
9. How much (in days) do you have:
i. Food (for immediate use)
ii. Water
iii. Power (and if on grid power what is your plan b?)
iv. Heat
v. Emergency food storage for freezer/fridge or other long-term use
10. What are your actions, plans & measures you take in your:
i. 1-hour plan
ii. 8-hour plan (until nightfall)
iii. 24-hour plan
iv. 3-day plan
v. 1-week plan
vi. 3-week plan
vii. longer-than-a-month plan
11. What specific measures, actions and plans do you take for your family security starting now?
12. What key things to this drill catch you unawares? (ex: not enough gas? No means of communicating with family not reliant on phones?)
—–
NOTE from me: You probably won’t agree with the whole scenario or you’ll see alternatives. (e.g. The fedgov has the capacity to force all ‘Net users to a DHS page, though it will try and will no doubt be able to manipulate those who aren’t tech savvy or politically savvy. But should grid power go down, it doesn’t matter; no ‘Net, anyhow. I also think everybody’s long-term plans in any SHTF situation are going to be turned topsy-turvy by the reality of unfolding events.)
But Jake’s come up with good food for thought. Worth constructing your own scenario from this and addressing a lot of the same questions.
I do know that one industry that simply cannot be abandoned for lack of money is the nuclear power plants. They would need time to properly shut down and that takes days. The same for any chemical plants as well.
Everyone should hope any collapse is VERY short termed. The longer it goes, the harder to re-start everything later. If you don’t believe me, take a look at the Population: Zero shows shown every now and then on the documentary channels. Things can turn to crap in pretty short order.
The roads and highway will not last long, only a few years without maintenance.
Ouch! Caught me with this one.
On my way into work this morning I was thinking, “You really need to fill up the car.” I only have about a quarter tank. That’s really a major fail on my part since my standard is to never drop below 1/2.
On number 4–without power or phones or gasoline I’m reduced to playing bicycle messenger. The only other method I can think of is short wave–but those would probably be RDFed and confiscated.
On item 10, however, I rate a zero. I’ve never made any disaster plans. Maybe I should plan to do so!
Last minute purchases: bleach. Need it for water purification. More canning jar lids never hurt, either.
All of you should read: One Second After by William Fortschen. It takes place after an EMP attack. A long term shutdon of everything could produce the same effects outlined in this book.
I’m not convinced that things would stop all at once if/when the Euro zone defaults. Things would be difficult, slow down and chaotic, but not a crashing halt. I am sure there would be a banking holiday immediately, then strict limits on what can be withdrawn on a daily basis and how. Safety Deposit boxes would likely have to be opened in the presence of a bank or federal officer and items removed logged and reported to fedgov. Would probably lose electronic banking, or at a minimum see longer time delays between moving money around.
I think our utilities overall would keep functioning. With the current economic models utility companies could probably use expected proceeds from utility services as collateral for loans to keep the fuel coming in, operators paid etc. The electronic grid might not be as stable as it was though. I do think there would be spot shortages on oil, gasoline, LPG etc. natural gas might have to find alternative delivery methods. Most people do not have the space suitable or safe enough for extensive fuel storage. Maybe full tanks and one or two cans of gas. Then, if the outages were widespread, where to go to? Might want a retreat location within range of one tank of gas.
Security would be important. Securing property will be a problem if someone isn’t physically present. That might be easier since many people will be locked out of work during this kind of crisis, if not unemployed already.
Biggest challenge will be keeping a low profile and avoiding the government. All kind of nasty things could be visited upon people unprepared and panicky. It would even make sense to some people to move to Life Support Centers (FEMA camps) to be taken care of by the Govt.
thanks for posting Claire 🙂
too few of us prepare, even fewer practice — I am guilty of later so wrote this up and ‘sprang’ this on my family.
My goal and hope is that catching you/me on the ‘wrong foot’ (least expected time) we can glimpse how we might be exposed in some area of our preparations and can remedy it before SHTF for real
Our greatest weakness, on doing this exercise, was lack of good inventory. We have been plumbing the depths of the basement all week to rectify.
Another ‘weakness’ is Communications. I now think we should get HAM radio. (I dread getting license from Fed Gov) I’d appreciate any/all with insight on Communications to provide their insight here as I’d like a means of getting news NOT filtered by Fed Gov AND I’d like to be able to communicate back to our farm if our family is ‘split up’ (some home, some on road) — our location is so remote and mountainous that I do not think anything shy of HAM radio would work.
** Wil S: I agree & also liked ‘One Second After’ for exposing how severe life would be. In an Economic melt I think we’d have some warning and ability to act as compared to ‘blink’ & then all ‘off’ from EMP
Again, I hope this thought exercise serves
Jake
In the old days, in the event of an economic collapse such as hyperinflation, people nicely stood in line and waited their turn in the bank or bread line. From seeing events in Greece and acknowledging our huge welfare class here in the U.S., I’m pretty sure we’ll have real societal unrest in the metro areas at least.
Unrelated… I’m pretty sure that in the event of the Zombie Apocalypse, it’ll be the Ron Paul crowd saving the world by organizing local militias to take care of the problem.
Another vote for “One Second After” here. Excellent book. If an EMP hits us we’ll be doing long distance communications via Pony Express again. Excluding the case of an EMP:
If all you want to do is receive news you don’t need a ham license. Just buy a good quality battery powered shortwave radio. A long piece of wire can be use to improvise a better antenna than is included, but that may not even be needed.
There are 3 levels of Amateur Radio licenses these days, the basic one (Tech) is most useful for local communications, although that can be extended to cover a larger region via repeaters. To communicate longer distances (across country or worldwide) you need a General or Extra license. They require more electronic theory and memorization of the band plans (that’s what always trips me up). More info can be found at http://www.arrl.org
I don’t think a collapse will be sudden. But the scenario is useful for getting you to examine your supplies.
For those that work out of the home you should also be thinking about your car’s emergency supplies. Even with a full tank of gas it won’t do you any good if the roads are shut down. Have enough supplies so that you (and those with you) can hike back home if needed. Have a handgun you can conceal. Long guns are more useful, but also way harder to conceal while traveling.
Rick- Granulated pool chlorine is better to keep on hand than bleach (which eventually turns to salt water). Find instructions on how to use it for water sterilization, write them on paper, and attach it to the bottle.
One thing I wonder about is how important communication would really be. It might make me feel better, but what does it do for my survival? The same goes for getting “news”. In a scenario like that it seems that if it happens too far beyond the horizon it’s probably not critical for survival. Yet. If you are prepared properly, then you can deal with it once (if) it comes over the horizon.
Another part of my “plan” is that I find (and get accustomed to using) things that require no power. Yard sales are good places to find “obsolete” hand-powered stuff. And I do have some crank-up flashlights and radios if I feel the need for them.
I also hate to admit it, but one person in my immediate “family” is expendable. In fact, survival would probably be easier if she weren’t around and weren’t able to get back here if TSHTF. Yeah, that’s harsh.
I’m not counting on being able to “last minute shop”. I’d have to travel too far from home to do so. So, I’d better have all my last minute shopping done now. I do have “money” on hand, as well as trade goods.
I would hope my sometimes next-door neighbor is home as he would be a good person to have watching my back (he’s a Claire Wolfe fan).
Preparing for TEOTWAWKI is my only real New Year’s resolution this year. I will do something, anything, toward that every day.
I keep my truck filled and it is only used for truckly jobs. I don’t have enough cash. We do keep a pretty stocked pantry with some big bags of dried beans & rice. I also have a Coleman stove and a portable propane stove. There’s also lots of deer and cattle are grazed on adjacent properties. Deals might be made there.
My small community shares a well and the cistern is pretty close so water would be reachable with no power.
I have thought a lot about items for barter. I’m old enough to remember when silver coins were in circulation. As they were going out I was working at an uncle’s store and would swap new coins for silver. I have a bag that’s hard to hold with one hand of worn out old silver coins.
I also used to have a C&R FFL and bought lots of cheap guns and ammo when the surplus gates were open. I still have some of it. I’d think a Lee Enfield or Mosin Nagant with 100 rounds of ammo would be valuable.
Steve
I’d probably run out of gas first-I fill up when it hits a half-tank,and it gets about 400 miles to a tank. My scooter is slower, but much easier on gas. I like riding a bike, so I could easily switch to that..though it’s obviously much slower. I have spare tires for it and a patch kit. Bicycle tires go flat easily-almost if you stare at them too long it seems.
A kerosene lantern produces a surprising amount of heat, and can keep a small room tolerable.So will candles(I have a quite a few candles). I have a small solar panel(the “solar adapter” kind-a few hundred miiliamps-not much, but I can charge Nimh batteries with it, to keep a radio and LED flashlights going).
Water-about 8 gallons,plus the water heater if I got desperate.
I have a ’70s era transistor general-coverage receiver. Old, but still perfectly functional. Canned stuff-quite a bit. All told, I’d probably be good for a couple weeks..
Steve- Your bag of “junk silver” coins is probably worth a lot more than you think. Hang on to it.
Another thing I keep wondering about- does the gov demand you have a license to OWN a ham radio, or only to broadcast with it? I’m thinking a person could get one, learn how it works, and not need to worry about licenses and other such silliness once TSHTF. After all, who’s going to come after you at that point simply because you aren’t “authorized” to use it?
I’m pretty well satisfied with my reserves of cash (enough for a week…if the banks are closed longer than that, then I don’t figure FRNs will be good for much by then) food (enough for 2 months at our present location), diesel (never less than enough to go 600 miles…more typically enough to go 1500, and all three plausible bug-out sites are within 250). I make it a point never to comment in public about my supply of weapons and ammunition for them, but I’ll say that even though I’m happy, I could be happier about that. The generator at the house can run everything essential indefinitely, and everything needed for comfort for more than long enough…it runs off the gas line. (Which, yes, will eventually fail if we’re at TEOTWAWKI, but it’s a _lot_ more reliable than grid electricity, which has failed us for multi-day periods four times in the last 18 months, even without TEOTWAWKI or particularly severe weather.) I’m a licensed HAM with sufficient kit and skill to be able to maintain communication across local, metropolitan, national, and international distances even without any central infrastructure, but this doesn’t have much impact on communication with critical family…they already know where and how to reunite and what to do until then.
Need to stock up more on trade goods, though. Need to get a big propane tank to backstop the gas line to the generator. Need to stock up on wife’s meds. Should probably have a more effective plan for getting home from work in case of mass rioting. And there’s other stuff. Like, say, improving our relations with the set of my wife’s family who operationally control one of the bug-out sites. (Technically we own an equal share. In reality, they live there full-time and we don’t. I don’t want to have to re-air grievances in the middle of a disaster so bad we have to bug out.)
Kent,
You can own ANY ham radio you want, you just arent (by law/regulation) supposed to transmit on it without a license.
Great article/post…. Very good idea to do this at least semi-annually to get a good snapshot of just how prepared you actually are….
Kent, all the ham radio stores that I know of require your license or callsign before selling to you. Even private sale hams will usually want to know your callsign.
Hey the best that we can do,is first of all we do try to keep the
truck full. It isn’t full this eveing, because my husband drove 100
miles home from Great Falls and the back way comming home.
One thing that we started duing when gas really went up was to
get a gas card. I put 100 dollars every 2 weeks on the card. Before
we eat or any thing else. You all may differ on the amounts. And we
try to keep the truck full at all times.
Secondly it took me years to do it, but I have a ton of fire wood on the ground. Our wood man is not very good now, But I do hope that he deleivers somethime this winter.
Also it has taken me years, but we do have some food in the house.
If you only add a can of this or that. An extra can. That will help.
Blessings,
Debby
I think I would like to be Kent McManigal’s neighbor. We think a lot alike. My family lives in 3 houses in a semi compound. No where near absolutely bullet proof but sustainable. We have bimonthly get- to-gethers to go over ‘things’. I sure want to use this article as a tool to find our weaknesses.
Jim B. wrote, “I do know that one industry that simply cannot be abandoned for lack of money is the nuclear power plants. … The roads and highway will not last long, only a few years without maintenance.”
Psft,… they just need new owners, like many things they just need to lower the asking price and someone will step in and pick up the baton and do a better job operating and maintaining them.
Walter Block has written some good stuff about how private roads work.
I was going to post this on the, Is it time to leave? thread, but I kept thinking of this one while I read it:
Combating The Darkness Within, by Paul B.
“… The Lucifer Effect… the name of a process by which ordinary people are transformed into doers of evil by the circumstances around them.” …
http://www.survivalblog.com/2012/01/combating_the_darkness_within.html
My batteries are drained, I can’t expand on it like I want to…
Clark, Great article and something I worry about quite a lot. There’s too many people out there, and it’s of little consequence to me what your politics or race are in this business (it goes all ways), who really believe they have a grievance that justifies anything. If you believe that white people made you poor, Mexicans took your job and caused you to lose your house, or Anglos stole your country, I guarantee that this will lead you into a dark place. This is one of the reasons I believe in “trade” versus force. Trade means everyone comes to an agreement on what’s fair. Woman will sell sex, it’s simply something to trade at times and that’s that. I’ve seen that all over the world and am hard pressed to judge them on it. However, most men, and a lot of woman, had better have something of value to trade. For many reasons I have a lot of personal negatives and very little to offer beyond what I physically have stored. My attitude about the use of force is very simple. I can only use force to prevent the use of force and fraud against me. Any other use of force is criminal.
One thing I’d like to correct is the notion that hungry people are dangerous. My experience is they are lethargic and non-confrontational. In Africa they will trudge along muddy roads for days, drinking ditch water and just putting one foot in front of the other to get to a refugee camp. Its’ the well fed without a moral compass you really have to worry about.
Scott, thanks for the reminder. I don’t have any spare tires for my bicycle!
LibertyNews – order online. Nothing required to purchase a radio. Local shops can do what they want to stump their business, but its not illegal to purchase a radio without a license.
Good thought provoking article. I am mostly as prepared as my inclination and resources allow. I have been living this way for the majority of my life and I hardly give it any conscious thought anymore.
In Jake’s scenario the first thing I would do is drive to the nearest gas station and fill all of my available gas cans regardless of the price per gallon. Gas is perishable and I often let my supply dwindle to about half before replacing it. I’m not bugging out. I did that years ago when I moved here. I carry some emergency supplies in the car and when ever I drive anywhere I ask myself if I’m equipped to walk home if necessary. At a minimum that involves having proper shoes and clothing available in the car, if not on my body.
I carry a GPS with me most of the time but I don’t worry about a radio much. Of the 2, the GPS is likely to be the most useful to me in an emergency.
As a lark, I’ve thought of trying to build a steam engine of a couple of horse power, mostly just for the fun of doing it, but it could also be useful to have an external combustion engine that will run on any type of fuel. That would make electricity less of a problem. Not really a serious prep as far as that goes but interesting enough to give me something to think about on cold winter days like these.
One of the things on my want list is a propane fueled generator of ~10KW. Propane is not perishable like gasoline and it would be much easier to keep a large supply constantly on hand.
Regarding the few people who have announced their plans to come and live with me when the SHTF, I’m not worried. By the time they realize that it has actually hit the fan things will be far enough along that they won’t be able to get here.
My bike has those solid foam innertubes, as does the trailer that I pull behind it.
Several relatives in the area have said they will come to me in case of … whatever. One keeps asking me to teach her some skills, but never seems to have time. Even one of my ex-wives has said she intends to come hide out here if TSHTF. And, if she can get here, she’ll be welcome. Seeing that she is 700 miles away I doubt she could.
I’ve bought several ham radios at the Dayton Hamvention, both new ones and flea-market ones. No one has ever asked me about a license. It is legal to OWN a station. It is illegal to TRANSMIT without a license. Short Wave Listening (SWL) is a very popular hobby, and no license is required.
I would love to say I would’ve been ready for this. I hope in another year I will be able to. But my homesteading plans got delayed (there is a list of my health setbacks elsewhere in this blog) and I’m still getting back on my feet. The place I’m living now is nowhere near ready, although last year I did finally convince the folks to add some garden beds.
My SHTF plan is to “bug in” right here at home. All my planning is geared to that end.
I currently have 130 gallons of stored water. 100 of that is in a “water bob” that I bought through Cheaper Than Dirt. http://www.cheaperthandirt.com/CAMP205-1.html
I probably have enought food for myself to last around 1 month. Would like to have more but $$$ and storage are problems. Particularly storage.
Have a stash of cash.
Carry even at home when awake. It is by the bed when I’m asleep.
Been a HAM since 1967. You don’t need a license to own a radio. When the SHTF licenses will be a moot point. Set up frequencies you will use. Make up tactical callsigns. Make up lists of land reference points using tactical names instead of their true locations.
Hanza- Just store enough food to last until the unprepared start dying off. Then become a scavenger/cannibal. 😉
And then there is “Alive”, the story of the rugby team who ate some of their dead teammates https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Alive_%281993_film%29 after an airplane crash. (I read the excellent book, but never saw this movie.)
I’ve wondered about the ethics of cannibalism also, Kent — along some of the same lines you’ve questioned it. Not sure I could do it, but a survival situation might change my mind.
To answer the question here, rather than at your blogspot, I think taboo attaches the moral issue to it, probably originating deep in the evolutionary jungles when some tribes cannibalized others, then missionaries came along and said, “No way” – thus “wrong” was born.
I’d be careful who I ate though – like the food we eat, you never know who’s “polluted” these days!
First of all, if it isn’t the dead of winter, there will be insects around. Eat them before you start eating people. We catch grasshoppers and fry them, Cambodian style, a couple of times a year. Really tasty.
It is often said that when the US gets a cold the rest of the world catches the flu. While that is not necessarily true, the effects in other countries, especially those which are heavily linked to the US economy, like Costa Rica, will be “interesting.”
I suspect that the Costa Rican government, and quite a few other Latin American governments, will use this as a excuse to grab all the US dollars they can. Within days, if not hours, of a US bank holiday being declared, all US$ accounts in CR will be frozen. The government will then convert the $ to Colones (the local currency) at the official rate and then devalue the Colon by at least 50%. Essentially they will do what the Argentine government did in 2000.
They will then follow up with regulations that only allow for the changing of $ at authorized locations (banks, licensed money changers, etc) and make the acceptance of foreign currency for payments illegal.
If the crisis continues for more than a week or so in the US, fuel will be rationed.
I expect the grid to stay up. Given that it is about 80% locally generated hydro. However if liquid fuel is in short supply then we can expect rolling blackouts.
The Internet will stay up, but since most of the traffic is routed through the US, and the those routes will probably be out of operation, traffic will re-route via South America. Then across the Atlantic to Africa and across the Pacific to Australia. The Internet will get very, very slow.
People who work for Call Centers which service the US will be laid off after a week or so, possibly sooner. Also companies that export to the US and Europe will probably not be able to. they will also lay off their staff. That will be several thousand unemployed hitting the streets all at once. I expect unemployment to triple.
So, what do we do? First is talk to the neighborhood watch committee, make sure everyone is on the same page. Then sit tight and see what develops.
We grow 70% to 80% of our food, and have plenty of protein (chicken, rabbits, fish, snails), fruits and vegetables. We could rely on the property for 100% of our food if necessary. For water we have a well, 11 cubic meters of water in reserve tanks and three swimming pools with about 80 cubic meters (they have the fish and snails). We keep a 50kg bucket of chlorine on hand (about 3/4 full right now).
As long a the grid stays up, even with rolling blackouts, we are OK. We have a battery backup which can power the essentials for 60 hours or so. This is periodically tested. Beyond that we have a gasoline generator, and keep 300 gallons on hand in 5 gallon cans (I fill the cans at the pump, then fill the car from the oldest cans at home).
Of course, if the grid is down for a long time we are in trouble, but hopefully we will have enough time to transition.
We have sufficient guns, but are probably low on ammo for a survival situation. Also my wife and I do not make it to the range nearly enough. However we are both very handy with machetes. It is a tool we use every day.
We have a enough cash in the house. For last minute shopping we buy medical supplies, both for human and animal use. We have a bit on hand, but best to have more if we expect times to get tough. It is great to live in a place where prescriptions are not required for most things, including antibiotics. We would also buy ammo (if we can) and extra broiler feed. The broliers/fryers are the only animals which we cannot feed from the property.
When I read the post, the family was home. If my children (teenagers) had been out they would have come home by bus. If the buses were not running they could have walked. From San Jose (the farthest they are likely to be) it would be a half day walk, but there are friends along the way, so not a big deal.
I will lose contact with my family in the US. My wife will lose contact with her family in Asia. We expect this to happen when TSHTF. Neither of our families believe in prepping, and both think we are nuts. We will be safe, our children will be safe. We hope they are.
This post did not change our plans, we need to deal with the possibility of long term grid loss. This means more manual devices and solar panels. We are saving the pennies so that we can eventually buy them. We will keep working on improving our food production. We need to make it to the range more often.
Finally, I know one person close to here who has a prepping mentality. We are better off than when it comes to food and water, but he is miles ahead of us when it comes to tools, having a full manual machine shop and lots of manual devices, for everything imaginable. My wife and I walk over to his place with a bunch of food, and we have a nice chat about the situation. It would not surprise me if he and his wife make it to our place first.