It would take most readers of this blog about 10 seconds to spot 10 egregious problems with this so-called news item. It’s unthinking, uncritical, hysterical newscasting at its worst.
But once we’ve gotten that out of the way … However irresponsible it may be to report without fact-checking that “supermoons” and fish kills mean an earthquake is going to hit the West Coast in the next week, why not use this moment to our benefit?
If we live on the West Coast we know we’re going to get an earthquake — a giant one — sometime. Some people are betting on the San Andreas fault. I think the Cascadia subduction zone is more likely to deliver the next big whammy. It’s been 300+ years since the last one. And when whammy time comes, it’s likely be huge — something along the lines of Alaska 1964, or the recent monsters in Chile and Japan.
Geology, of course, doesn’t give a damn about tiny human timespans and if it could laugh, it would cackle in menacing supervillain fashion at our tiny pretentions and predictions. But we’re here. The rocks under us are grinding along in their own time. And it’s gonna happen. Maybe even happen next week — though not because Jim Berkland says so.
And don’t be smug, you guys smart enough not to live in earthquake zones. You’ve got your own crosses to bear.
So yes, let’s use this moment while we’re thinking about supermoons and Fortean fishkills and the real or unreal signs of impending quakes and timing of quakes along the Ring of Fire. No matter where we are, how about making this weekend a time to look at our preps and do a little regularly scheduled buffing up?
Me, I need to add a new bag of dog food to the emergency cache, check the status of my first aid supplies, and strap down that water heater …
think your right about the cascade zone
and strap down that water heater …
Thanks, I hadn’t thought about that. Last major earthquake in these parts was 1875, but it caused some real problems.
I think so, too, bumperwack; in fact it should have come before now.
I remember the 1964 Alaska earthquake — I was 120 miles inland in Washington State, and it woke me up in early am shaking the mountain bedrock under me. That’s when I started studying that more northern geological area closely. I’m surprised it’s been so quiet.
Several years ago I read (can’t remember where; some science article) that the earth itself “breathes” — and in so-doing, it fluctuates back and forth over time from a relatively round orb to a football-shaped oval. Picturing this in my mind, I can see where any number of benign and malignant activities could take place, and might explain several natural phenomena that we currently don’t understand and can’t predict. (Maybe even the dreaded Global Warmings and Ice Ages.) As the poles move closer together — or farther apart — surely something will be “fractured” underground, as well as topside changes occurring.
Well, one statement in that interview I can endorse without qualm: “[I am] not a genius.”
I trust everyone here developed their own news sources: IAEA, TEPCO, etc. Wikipedia turned out to have some excellent stuff. I note that none of my reliable sources were MSM, no surprise.
I used that video to gently remind a relative on the west coast that it might be an opportune time to review preps and family planning for where and how re-unite after a crisis. It’s not a case of the prediction being right or wrong. We all need to review our supplies and our thinking about disaster planning from time to time.
My “Y2K” supply of food has morphed into a very useful pantry, but the other day I discovered some twelve year old cans. Blech. Luckily there are genuine pigs around the corner.
if the past is any guide, and I have no plans on visiting the NorthWest at this time, bad West Coast quakes only happen if I’m there. As for predictions, who knows? Seems like they happen to those who have gone complacent. My attitude is to always be ready if that day should come and not worry about it otherwise. The point about pretentious geology is dead on. In geological terms, “give or take 5000 years”, is optimistic prediction.
And we could step out the door and get hit by a bus, tackled by a bear, hit by an asteroid, bitten by some bug with some weird virus (or poison), something may fall on our heads, the list could go on and on….We shouldn’t need some disaster to remind (or make) us prepared to take care of ourselves, that should be done all the time anyway……Part of being prepared is to expect the unexpected, part of being prepared is doing the best you can to survive (as comfortably as possible) whatever it is that flies at you, and stay one step ahead of the resulting zombies – not to mention the authorities who “have your best interest” in mind…..
/end rant
Sorry- ….seems every time I turn around lately something is about to blow up in our faces…and while I admit to being fascinated with learning some very cool things in the process, I’m beginning to wonder if constant state of paranoia is some new fad or “someone’s” idea of population control-manipulation…..
Bad things are always going to happen, sometimes to us or sometimes it misses us…..If you’ve lived your life to it’s fullest, accomplished enough of what you wanted to (and what you can be proud of) – then flash an evil smile at the “bad thing” and break out your ninja moves to outsmart it….whatever the outcome, you’ve already won….
Disappointing, Claire-this hit piece on Jim Berkland. Don’t think he claims to be a prophet, but he does have an accuracy rate > than 75% with his earthquake predictions.
I can’t say the same about my ability to predict ANYTHING other than that the sun will rise in the AM-I doubt seriously that you can, either.
Suggest you do your homework on this one…
“There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments, and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance—that principle is contempt prior to investigation.”-William Paley-[NOT Herbert Spencer as attributed in Alcoholics Anonymous]
“And don’t be smug, you guys smart enough not to live in earthquake zones. You’ve got your own crosses to bear.”
True. But those images of Japan have succeeded in making me grateful for blizzards and ice storms.
An 8th grade science teacher once said to my class something to the effect that the planet had been much more “active” 10,000 years ago. At the time I remember thinking, “why did it quit and can it come back”? Perhaps nothing is different, but we all know what’s going on in the world. But something changed in the minds of people everywhere. The US government. None of us, including the most starry-eyed liberal, believe that the US government is a talisman against chaos. It’s as if there’s some kind of mass understanding of the ever greater limits of our “protection”. People are beginning to talk about things that some of us have been about for years, like food preps, and don’t see us as wildly out of touch with reality. We are the new reality. Everyone smells chaos just around the corner. That’s very different in the Western world.
Dean Malkowski — I wasn’t just referring to Berkland, but to the entire context in which his prediction was placed. It was five minutes of cherry-picked data and uncritical acceptance of his statements with no attempt by the newsies to investigate the validity of Berkland’s methods or get other scientific viewpoints.
As to Berkland himself — I’m quite sure there are odd signs that precede many big earthquakes. (Electrical effects, odd animal behavior, etc.) But time and again such signs have proven unreliable. They appear before some quakes, while other quakes equally large don’t produce them.
Berkland claims that a mass fish kill in southern California is a sign an earthquake is coming. He cites whale beachings and lost dog reports. Yet if he actually counted all fish kills, whale beachings, and lost dog reports, he’d have to admit they don’t correlate so neatly with earthquakes.
I keep hearing “Berkland has an 80 percent success rate” or “Berkland has a 75% success rate.” But claims is all I ever hear. Where are the specifics?
Finally, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if — when earthquake prediction eventually becomes a reliable reality — it does come from someone using odd methods, someone who thinks outside the box. But I don’t think Berkland (despite his one apparently notable prediction in 1989) has established that he’s achieved what other scientists have not. I don’t think that either giving wide-eyed support to Berkland or damning Berkland does any good. The only route to the truth is to investigate rigorously the specific claims. “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”
As to me writing a “hit piece” — no way. I just thought that report was truly crappy journalism, Berkland himself aside.
I’m in the process of helping with a hazard analysis for our city’s Emergency Operation Plan. They review their plans every two years and we have been at it since late January. Of course right after the earthquake in japan, one of the local pol’s made a big deal about how “our city” has reacted to the earthquake by doing an earthquake analysis.
So one of the local rags called up our chairman who sent the caller to me. I told the reporter that we were looking at ALL hazards that we face and the best thing everyone could do is have at least three days of food and water on hand and that thirty days of food is even better.
Of course none of that showed up in the paper, just the quote from the local pol and several other regional politicians who just happen to be up for election this year.
Recently we just got a water filter system, we have been storing food for a long time, are getting back up supplies and working on other preps. Not near enough for me, but I have to go slow as the wife is only slightly on board.
Every time we have a disaster in the world, I look and see what we could do to mitigate it in our area.
DrillSgtK —
“Of course none of that showed up in the paper, just the quote from the local pol and several other regional politicians who just happen to be up for election this year.”
They didn’t even print the part about keeping food and water on hand? I hope that doesn’t mean we’re coming full circle. As you probably know better than I, pre-Katrina anybody who advocated any food storage was a paranoid nut. Post-Katrina, recommendations like yours became mainstream — and de rigeur. I hope preparedness isn’t descending back into “nutcase” category now that it’s finally come out of the closet.
Thanks for the emergency prep work you do for your community.