Have you heard of the misery index? (Stick with me; this does have to do with the very real violence we face.)
Very simple: The misery index is the rate of inflation added to the rate of unemployment. It was invented by one of LBJ’s economists back in the 1960s and designed as an imprecise indicator of how Average Joe and Average Josie are feeling at any given time. The lower, the better.
Index is 2.97? Happy people, happy country. That, BTW, is the lowest it’s ever estimated to have been, (presumably retroactively calculated) for 1953.
Index is 21.98? Unhappy people, unhappy country. That is the official highest the misery index has ever been, back in 1980 when Joe Biden, Sr. Jimmy Carter was ending his short and now eclipsed tenure as the nation’s weakest and most pathetic president.
Did I saw “simple”? HA.
Because of course not long after the index hit its most embarrassing high the “official” ways of calculating both inflation and unemployment began to be seriously fiddled. People who give up looking for work are — voila! — not UNemployed and not counted. If one item in the “basket of goods” consumer price index calculation gets too expensive, a cheaper item is substituted — from steak to hamburger to chicken to cat food. Voila! no inflation.
According to official statistics, the current (as of October) misery index is 10.82. Not “Leave it to Beaver” days happy, but not Jimmy Carter malaise, either.
And if you believe that, I’ve got a Built Back Better bill to sell you.
So (with the aid of friend and occasional co-blogger Silver) we turn to ShadowStats, where John Williams has been calculating various economic indices as they were calculated once upon a time. And we get these figures for the last two years:
2020
Unemployment: 35%
Inflation: 10%
Misery index: 45%
2021
Unemployment: 25%
Inflation: 15%
Misery index: 40%
Now, you can quibble with ShadowStats, and people do. (This article explains the main issue clearly and with great graphics.) But which figures do you believe are closer to reality?
If anything, judging by the national and global climate, Williams’ figures appear to understate our degree of misery.
—–
But Claire, I hear you protesting, when are you going to get to the part where you relate all these dry, intellectual 🙁 statistics to present day and future violence?
Now. Right now, I promise.
The relationship is, according to a well-aged research paper out of Auburn University:
A. Violence (with the murder rate used as a proxy for all violence) unsurprisingly goes up with the misery index; and
B. The effect lags by about a year.
Although the 2006 paper viewed the annual murder rate, a few years after its publication, we saw two more upticks. The misery index soared toward a new all-time high (per ShadowStats figures). And — guess what? — we then experienced a plague of the very sort of smash-and-grabs and flash-mob crimes we’re witnessing today.
Except back then the non-official misery index was “merely” 33-34%. Now …?
Graph created by Silver
Worse, even though life sucked back in 2011 — as we slogged through the endless non-recovery from the crack-up of 2008 — we didn’t have a large, vocal power faction actively encouraging racial and economic resentment, dismissing the impact of crime (“mostly peaceful protests,” “the SUV drove into the crowd”), and enacting policies guaranteed to tell criminals that crime pays. Nor did we have an administration blatantly promoting hyperinflation and mass unemployment to destroy small business and the middle/working classes — both of which we have now.
To state the obvious, miserable, hopeless people are already prone to commit freelance crime. And the sadly less obvious to most people: It’s easy for power factions to whip misery, hopelessness, and chronic resentment into bigger — and from their perspective — better and more useful violence.
—–
Of course, none of this proves anything and I’m not saying it does. I welcome criticism, corrections, corroborations, or counter-calculations. Fire away.
It’s simply that the misery index is busily confirming what our own experience tells us — and confirms that the signs aren’t good.
In 2020 we had all those “mostly peaceful” arsons, lootings, and expropriations of formerly pleasant neighborhoods. In 2021, the murder rate soars and smash-and-grab becomes not only a crime of opportunity for lone creeps and local gangs, but becomes big, organized business.
—–
There’s a pattern in the lead-up to internal warfare. I don’t know if it’s the pattern, but it’s certainly a typical one:
- An “us against them” attitude becomes intractable;
- Urban crime not only soars, but becomes (in some eyes) justified;
- Crime moves into the suburbs (again, justified; that’s where the no-good richfolk live and they have insurance to protect them, anyhow);
- Then crime moves onto the highways, where no one is safe from hijackings, roadblocks, and random killings.
- Troops are called out to “keep peace,” but either it’s too late for peace or the troops themselves commit and provoke worse violence.
And round and round it goes until everything implodes.
All the while, right from the beginning, some political faction is either actively encouraging the violence or taking advantage of it to gain power.
No, usually several factions are doing the encouraging and taking advantage. One faction hopes to destabilize society to impose a new order on top of it. One hopes to entrench and grow its power through harsh imposition of “law and order” (“temporary measures for the duration of the emergency,” of course) and needs maximum crime to justify maximum response. Another faction uses ordinary crime as a cover for planning and executing it’s own even more nefarious crimes. Another faction, originally merely criminal, uses the chaos to influence and entrench itself into whatever it perceives to be the winning power bloc. On and on.
The beneficiaries of crime and misery are legion. And they don’t include us.
—–
A statement by a member of the Living Freedom Forums sums up what we all know: “We are on the threshold of a year that IMHO will be a very hard one to survive in one piece.”
That year is probably barely the beginning. Attacks — from the mass looting of luxury-goods stores to attacks like the mass-murderous “SUV accident” in Waukesha — are looking like a typical prelude to civil war.
Some of you, I realize, don’t expect or even want us to survive in one piece. We can argue about that.
One thing is inarguable: Violent war is being brought to us by violent pawns and their well-insulated chessmasters. Does anybody disagree?
Dear readers — I intended to develop this column further before publishing, but in the days after drafting it, Christmas leaped upon me suddenly. I was defenseless to resist. I figured better to launch the column with all its imperfections than to sit on it any longer. So there you have it.
For the remainder of the year my posts will probably consist of cute dog pictures.
best inflation index for real world I’ve found is the price of bread versus how many hours you have to work to earn one. Of course we’re talking average NOT how much Bezos pays. Gas gets played with, milk gets played with, sugar gets played with but bread seems to be fairly standard across the years. Take the average salary per hour, divide by 60 and how many of those units to buy an average loaf of bread is your index. You can find these statistics in most any good almanac.
Claire – I think it is fair to say that the existence of the Misery Index is known and that how things like unemployment and inflation are calculated are known to have been modified over time (I believe I even read somewhere inflation has been recalculated recently). As a result, it is fair to say that although people may agree with the interpretation of the data, they also have to acknowledge the data has been changed and it always seems to be changed in a way that favors current policies. Why it has been changed is subject, of course, to debate.
As to the rise in violence and crime – as the saying goes, one gets what one encourages. And the government has done very little to discourage such behavior.
I think the paragraph that begins:
“No, usually several factions . . . ”
is right on target, and very important. But figuring out just which factions (or coalitions of factions) are doing what toward what ends may be much more difficult than it appears at first glance.
The difficulties are many: There are many factions, some obvious and some we probably don’t recognize at all. This leads to a plethora of possible coalitions amongst the many factions, again, some of which may be clearly visible, open alliances and some of which may be deeply hidden and very secretive.
Ditto for the ends (goals) that these factions and coalitions may be trying to achieve. They may be good, bad, short-term, long-term, obvious or obscure, or anywhere in between.
And then there are the envisioned paths toward these ends, which may be short and straight, or long and winding.
All of these factors add up to what we hear daily, almost always simplified and minimized, in words and phrases like “instability,” “unpredictable,” “interesting,” “precarious,” “uncertain,” and so on. Just the fact that these terms are being used so frequently, both in the corporate, statist media and everywhere else, is an indication of just how worrisome the situation is.
I think the chess game that we are seeing, and that we are the pawns in, will make these look simple by comparison:
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.dut-FMvNclJ3JfFCRYtCAQAAAA%26pid%3DApi&f=1
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse4.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.WGedLS2nuoHOeiCMJIXJtAAAAA%26pid%3DApi&f=1
Yes, ’tis the Season! I would rather focus on the beauty and love of Christmas, but I find myself watching Holocaust testimonies, each of which can be several hours long. These testimonies are readily available on Youtube and were documented in the 1990’s. Which is interesting – many state that they couldn’t speak of it for a very long time – decades. What I appreciate about them is they describe what their lives were like before the World Wars, then with the rise of Hitler, the attitudes, how things changed in practical every day terms, how people didn’t believe things would get as bad as they did, being carted off, how few survived the camps, then they describe their lives afterwards – very informative – some even saying they loved Stalin (before Stalin started killing everyone too). Things did not “go back to normal”.
The White House issued a statement yesterday, I think, stating that this winter would bring terrible illness and death for the unvaxxed. This is contrary to Science. And it sounded like a threat, to me. Something like, if the virus doesn’t get you, we the government are going to. Lots of talk about vaccine passports, again. They couldn’t pass their Broke Back Better Bill, so they’re going to double down on the Plandemic. Which means, the supply chain will be further crippled, more job losses, more stress, and more despair, and more anger. They plan to crank up the misery index further to see if they can beat us into compliance. It won’t work.
In other news, I received all the test results from my cancer doctor and while my numbers are slightly worse than last year, I’m not going to die any time soon. I want to avoid hospitals and the like for as long as I can. That always gives me great encouragement to keep going!! Keep pushing forward for a self-sufficient lifestyle. I tripped on the stairs this morning but was able to catch myself and I chastised myself, “Pay Attention Girl!!” and “Good catch!” LOL. So much to do.
In 2022, I see further supply chain disruptions, intense media propaganda against the unvaxxed, more court cases against the mandates, more families moving to safe havens, more stocking up, and more crime. Head on a swivel.
Had an interesting conversation with a relative whose offspring are still living in the belly of the beast in SoCal. The only change one made was to drive to work rather than walk due to “gang activity”. It reminds me of the Jews who just couldn’t believe what was happening until it was too late. Very sad to me. I pray for their safety and pray they wake up before it is too late.
Poverty does not cause crime, Claire. It doesn’t help… but think of your ancestors during the Dirty 30s. My grandad rode around on the roofs of trains looking for work. He was forced at the point of starvation to use soup kitchens and flop houses from time to time. He shoveled coal and dug ditches. My grandmother could stretch a penny until it howled in pain. My dad and his older brothers had no idea they were poor. They learned to fix, patch, mend and repair things until they were completely used up and finished. They sometimes talk of the old times and they all smile when the do it.
We have some very, very nasty truths and realities on our side to face too. Such as – what do the crime and poverty stats look like when you factor in race. I have news for some of the slow kids – none of that is your fault. That is just one truth to deal with, for starters.
The mob is looking for scapegoats right now. Anyone that is a fascist, homophobe, Christian, misogynist – or be made to look like one – is fair game. The witch and show trials have already started. The secret police are going to start making their presence felt next. ‘Greetings, my fellow liberty minded Christians!’ This is why your idea for alternative economies and societies will fail – if you get caught doing that, the penalties will be severe, even lethal… and you will not be able to trust anyone because anyone could be a snitch. As their power wanes, fear is all these goofs will have left to control people.
At some point, you are going to have to show some courage and fight. Yes – it is going to get that bad. And yes – you will ultimately win too. That will be when the real work starts – and we have to start fixing all this.
“Poverty does not cause crime”
I agree 100%, Glenfilthie.
Side note: Years ago, at a time of rising economic distress, I wrote an article about unemployment. My otherwise wonderful editor added that poverty/unemployment “led to increased domestic violence” — then published the article under my byline without running the change by me.
I landed on him with all fours. I told him that neither poverty nor unemployment nor any other outside factors could possible cause domestic violence, that the sole cause of domestic violence is the assholes who commit it.
So I am on your side here.
However — for no doubt numbers of complex reasons, some valid and some mere excuses — general public misery and decaying economic conditions do seem to lead to increases in violent crime, which political factions then take advantage of.
I think inflation is a bigger trigger than is usually recognized because even if Joe and Josie Average don’t understand the underlying causes — that is, don’t understand the cruel game TPTB are playing with their meager “fortunes” — they know they’re being screwed over by somebody. They see the quality of their lives and their children’s lives eroding away and there’s not a damn thing they can do about it. Given that inflation also inevitably goes along with cultural decay and corruption, once decent but marginal people might just feel justified in lying, cheating, stealing, and who knows what else to “get some of our own back.”
Inflation doesn’t cause crime any more than unemployment or poverty does, of course. But we know from research and our own observations that those factors and more set up the conditions for rising crime.
Was it different in Grandpa’s day? Sure, somewhat. Young grandpa might have been raised on a farm and had the value of hard work drummed into him. He probably didn’t feel entitled to free money or free goods. He likely had an intact family to turn to. But even then … I remember my Depression-era relatives taking about rising crime, and even making careful distinctions between hobos (like those riding trains to find someplace with jobs) and bums (those who might also be traveling, but strictly looking for opportunities to fleece, rob, or even kill and get away with it).
Excellant think piece young lady! And I likes thinking.
I’m not a stat’s kinda guy, to me the one stat that matters the most is the price I see every time I fill the rig up. If that goes up so does everything else and it has gone up in 2021 and it will be going up even more in 2022. Things won’t be getting better; the only question is how bad. How high can that price per gallon go before the wheels come off?
TPTB knows what is coming, their mistake is that they think they can use it to their advantage, there are somethings that are better left in the box because once it gets out, getting it back in can be rather hard and a lot of damage can be done. When the walls crave in on a republic, everyone can get exposed to the elements.
When I am in my rig, I keep an eye on the rear-view mirror sometimes as much as looking ahead when what is behind me is approaching at a high speed, history IMHO does repeat, sometimes knowing what is behind you may help you to understand what is ahead of you.
So, in the past when a republic was imploding what was a good way for TPTB to keep things under control. The people just needed a common enemy, can be foreign/domestic/or both. It does seem the head honcho of our repub today is intent on making the unvax such that type of common enemy. So let’s say ‘they” like in them are successful with creating that threat (by identifying the unclean) to their civilization in the eyes of their followers of which they are the protectors, well what then? They better have a strong arm to enforce “their” edicts. What’s better than to use what is already there, but purge out those that are unclean . Anyone noticing how the federal military and law enforcement in some states & cities are being purged? All of this has happened before in history too. What was once called a good german is something I strive very hard not to be just like avoiding getting on box cars. To me it is all about the individual, mainly me and what I will do in the name of my individual liberty, it’s a personal thing IMHO. Staying in one piece seems like a good goal for 2022 but achieving that may require an attitude of not making it your highest priority if liberty is the outcome you seek.
One last note;
there can never be too many cute dog pictures!!!
and with that in mind, what’s life without a little risk?
https://rumble.com/vqxr7z-that-little-unnecessary-hop.html
“The White House issued a statement yesterday, I think, stating that this winter would bring terrible illness and death for the unvaxxed.”
Disgusting, wasn’t it? Just over a year ago Biden was saying Trump deserved to be thrown out of office for presiding over the COVID plague. Now he’s rubbing his hands together like some cartoon villain, using terror as a tool of power, and relishing the specter of mega-deaths occurring under his administration.
Never mind that the growing data indicates that we’re increasingly seeing a “pandemic of the vaxxed.” These political vultures are repulsive, anti-life creatures.
“As to the rise in violence and crime – as the saying goes, one gets what one encourages. And the government has done very little to discourage such behavior.”
Well spoken as usual, TB.
One thing I’m curious about. Normally, the R party would be howling about “lawnorder” and proposing crackdown measures. These days, while they’re pointing fingers and blaming Dems, they don’t appear to be proposing any solutions of their own.
Of course, political “solutions” are just as evil or inept as political problems. We should be glad that the R’s aren’t proposing lawnorder megaforce. But … well, it’s curious that they’re aren’t.
Granny —
I’m sure everybody’s very glad to hear that.
Amen. Even pre-pandemic my opinion of most doctors wasn’t very high. (My opinion of surgeons is pretty good, but even in my limited contact with the medical system I’ve seen way too much misdiagnosis, arrogance, carelessness, just plain ignorance, and rote treatment.) Now? I don’t want to go anywhere near them.
Thank you, Comrade X.
Amen.
Between your fuel and stryderoftheuplands’ bread, I think you’ve hit on the essentials here.
And as to watching in the rear-view mirror, I hear you. The current turmoil may not have spread far from cities and suburbs yet, but even in those places it’s several times taken over the highways. I have no doubt that eventually the thieves and murderers (both freelance and organized) will be taking over rural highways and doing heaven knows what. (When that happens, I hope they get more than a few serious surprises in places like Texas, Florida, and the Great State of Jefferson.)
https://www.in2013dollars.com/White-bread/price-inflation
White bread price inflation. Even government stats paint a pretty horrible picture.
This doesn’t include the “how many hours you have to work” stat that stryderoftheuplands mentioned. Still pretty grim.
yes Claire, there are places in this country yet today where if & when evil shows it ugly face it will be only a short time before that face will have a very painful expression, don’t ya know?
@Claire
“the R party would be howling about “lawnorder” and proposing crackdown measures. These days, while they’re pointing fingers and blaming Dems, they don’t appear to be proposing any solutions of their own.”
They have their canned solution ready to go, but they need MUCH more general violence and chaos before it becomes palatable enough to speak publicly. Like the vaccines, which could not be authorized if they admitted ivermectin et. al. were effective, and their treatment protocols, which require no treatment at all until it become so nasty they can intubate and use remdesivir. Similarly, there must be no lawnorder solution, until the problem becomes nasty enough to “validate” totalitarian clamp downs, THEN they’ll be talking about nothing else, and TPTB flip sides.
“I hope they get more than a few serious surprises in places like Texas, Florida, and the Great State of Jefferson”
You and me both, I’ve a horse in that race…. but my reconnaissance, such as it is, suggests folks there are much like in northern Idaho, WAY behind the curve about where this is going. They think it won’t come to them, or they’re protected. And much worse (than Idaho) Jeffersonians are largely focused on pot, not their surroundings. They are terminally naiive about violence in general, and are convinced that you only see it when you bring it upon yourself by thinking about it, much less planning for it. There’s going to be “great blindsiding”. They’ll get a clue, but too late to act upon it. Like Solzhenitzn “in the camps”. This does not look good right now.
(When that happens, I hope they get more than a few serious surprises in places like Texas, Florida, and the Great State of Jefferson.)
Claire, Jefferson isn’t immune. We’re 300+ miles to the nearest crime center, but we had our first grab and go here last week at the local equipment store. Not too bright guy in a hoodie with an easily identifiable message on the back walked in, grabbed 2 Stihl chainsaws off the shelf and ran out.
So the city problems are on their way here, but I think they’ll find a different and less friendly response than what they’re used to in the cities.
There are all kinds in the state of Jefferson, a lot of hippies and probably more rednecks.
Most all have one thing in common; they love LIBERTY!
People here in Jefferson are making a stand too, the liberty minded are heard loudly and on a regular basis.
IMHO there are more than enough who will fight for that liberty here, when the time comes.
Fido next time you do a reconnaissance let me know and I personally will be your guide to what standing up for freedom looks like in Jefferson, methinks I can change your mind, don’t ya know?
Fido, I think your assumptions of Jefferson are not quite accurate.
Today, SOJ is more a statement of the state of mind shared by a geographic community. Pot farmer, descendant of a pioneer family or recent transplant, “freedomista” is by far our largest demographic group. Everyone just wants to be left alone. And folks will defend against intrusions upon our freedoms.
Back in PP (pre-pandemic) times, back when it was just the cities ablaze, a rumor started about busloads of antis heading out of the cities. Word went out and 1 Jefferson county had 100 fully armed citizens standing side by side with local leos in front of the county courthouse an hour later ready to defend their home.
I haven’t been here long, but I really believe the acronym FAFO is going to be our new state’s motto should it ever happen.
@Just Waiting
“Everyone just wants to be left alone. And folks will defend against intrusions upon our freedoms.”
Sure hope so… My recon showed a sizable minority have both seen the need for defensive tools, and then aquired them, but almost NONE have seen the need for radio communications, and my recon shows precisely none have aquired them. (or they’re a great deal more paranoid than I am, which is quite doubtful)
@Comrade X
“Most all have one thing in common; they love LIBERTY!”
“IMHO there are more than enough who will fight for that liberty here, when the time comes.”
As per Solzhenitzn, I hope they love it *enough*.
“next time you do a reconnaissance let me know and I personally will be your guide to what standing up for freedom looks like in Jefferson.”
I’m well resourced capably and materially, but my networking attemps have come to naught over the years, which Is why I’d been studying the redoubt, but when prices tripled, and the clock ran out (no time to prepare, and materials unobtainable), I had to fall back to my original plan, which sux ugly.
Trying to get my paranoid head around how to take you up on that offer, and drawing a blank. Now that I’m committed to ugly, sure would be nice to have some objectively sourced hope in some eventuality better than what Granny and I expect. I’m getting hard and dark, losing my humor.
1. We had lunch with my wife’s sister and her husband Sunday. The SIL was a cheerleader in high school and has always run with the popular clique. She helped plan their recent high school 50th anniversary. That whole branch of the family has never worried much about politics.
Now they are, and they don’t like what they see. I think the current term is “red pilled.”
2. From what I hear and read from the Progressive side, TPTB and their followers think they’re in control. But everything they’re trying is failing, and they don’t understand why.
They have no clue who the folks on the Right are, and the redneck stereotype they’re planning their takeover around doesn’t exist. They are completely oblivious to a fundamental rule of conflict: “Know your opponent.”
3. A fundamental rule of politics is: “Never, ever, pi** off your praetorians.” The military, on the grunt level, is a brotherhood. From sending troops to bivouac in parking garages, to the Afghanistan fiasco, to discharging soldiers for not getting vaxxed – Let’s just say TPTB are not winning the loyalty they need.
It’s going to get very messy when TPTB poke the bear once too often. I think they’re in for a rude surprise.
“Worse, even though life sucked back in 2011 … ”
In absolute terms, that’s hard to argue with, and so I won’t. But here’s a thought I had when reading this: would we trade 2020-21 for 2011? In the proverbial New York minute, I think, for most if not all of us. A less-than-cheerful companion thought follows. Ten years from now, will those of us still breathing be thinking of 2021 as “the good old days?”
Back in the late 1980s, I started comforting myself with the thought that “it can’t get worse.” Life has pretty well cured me of that, I think. It can get worse. And will.
Hard and dark is one thing but losing your humor is another.
IMHO one should work at not taking oneself to seriously, I find it a worthwhile effort.
You have to start at the position that our stats and narratives about crime and punishment are all false. Most people don’t realize that the vast majority of violent crime is ‘criminal-on-criminal’ type violence. In the real world – drug wars, competing prostitution rings, and organized crime. Other narratives that have been accepted with question is the one of domestic violence. Folks like us don’t just snap and beat our wives. Most domestic abuse is a case of two idiots fighting, and the smaller idiot losing. And the vast amount of all THAT is strongly linked to race too.
So goes the rest of it. Joe Biden decides to relocate 50 families of Afghans into your community and about the same of Somalians to improve your community’s problems with diversity and vibrancy. What is that going to do? Carefully not mentioned during the Trayvon Martin/Zimmerman trial was the fact that the community was in the midst of a crime wave. It was so bad, moms couldn’t let their kids out to play on their own streets because of drug dealers and race gangs that sprang up in their neighbouhood. A pattern developed: the cops would show up, take your report, file it, and do nothing. When Zimmerman went out to try and clean things in his neighbourhood up – he ended up fighting for his life (and could very well have lost) – and then got prosecuted by the state for it.
There is nothing ‘wrong’ with Mexico or Africa. They are just full of Mexicans and Africans, doing what Mexicans and Africans do, Now they are doing that in your neighbourhood and you will be punished if you dare to notice it. The crime jump in your neighbourhood can often be attributed to more diversity and vibrancy… but any objective study on that would be anathema and apostasy.
We have to decide which way we are going to go. I’d like to see this done peacefully: unify, and confront the courts and police lawfully and head on but ready to do something if they get stupid about it – and do that together. The other way to deal with this is to shoot, shovel and shut up. I’d rather see constitutional law done in public where everyone can see that the game is fair and the dice aren’t loaded. But – if the left makes our choice one of vigilante justice and none at all… we will have to do what we can do at some point.
Sorry, you lost me there.
There is nothing ‘wrong’ with Mexico or Africa. They are just full of Mexicans and Africans, doing what Mexicans and Africans do,
Texas has 3 million more Blacks and Hispanics than it has Whites, and most of them are good citizens.
In Africa it depends on which country you’re talking about. There are vast differences, and the differences depend on what kind of government the country has.
Mexico has a one-party centralized government that can’t control the narco-gangs which are being funded primarily by the U.S. War on Drugs.
Most people don’t realize that the vast majority of violent crime is ‘criminal-on-criminal’ type violence.
That’s true. Much of the violence in the U.S., until last year, was concentrated in poorer neighborhoods in Democrat-run cities, and was perpetrated by a small percentage of people for whom drug trafficking was the only career available due to the education and social welfare system they grew up in.
But that does not mean that the people who pay for drugs and prostitutes are concentrated in those areas.
Folks like us don’t just snap and beat our wives.
Yes, “folks like us” absolutely do. I’ve seen it in emergency rooms, and on 24-hour parking lots meeting battered spouses, and in the shelters we offered them. Domestic violence crosses all the socioeconomic and racial lines.
Let’s examine the problem without regard to minorities, whether of color or culture.
We must define the terms. What is a crime?
The problem will never be solved without separating those “crimes” which are victimless (mala prohibita) and those actual Crimes against another person or their property (mala in se).
ALL “victimless” crimes, should be wiped off the books, all prisoners released. Eliminate Law Enforcers and restore the concept of “Peace Officer”, only there to actually protect and give aid, not enforce a puritans version of the american sharia.
Allow all people even drug dealers (besides the pharmacy’s) access to a court of justice. Let peace break out all over. As a benefit, we will have lots of room in the prisons to lock up the real, criminals, the violators of others.
Without identifying and defining what “Crime” is, a fruitful discussion will be difficult, In my opinion.
Well done! As is Joe. He’s cooked.
Tahn and larryarnold — I agree. And to the rest of the Commentariat, my apologies. Had Glenfilthie’s most recent comment come from a new commentor, it would have gone into moderation and I’d have axed it. Because of your excellent responses I’ll let it stand.
To remind anybody who needs reminding: Racist comments are not allowed here.
And Glenfilthie, are you truly so ignorant?
I’ve lived in Mexican neighborhoods and would rather have those neighbors than you. Throughout your entire screed you (deliberately and ignorantly) conflate cultural disruption with race.
And “folks like us” do sure as hell commit domestic violence. True, they usually don’t “just snap.” More often it’s a pattern of vile, controlling behaviors that’s gone on for years — much, much worse than “just snapping.” I grew up as the target of such monstrousness, perpetrated by the sort of “nice” white man you’d have no doubt approved of and you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Poverty does not cause crime. Thomas Sowell pointed out that crime, in fact, can cause poverty. Consider businesses closing in California and other places due to criminal activity. Jobs are lost. Job-creators leave. The results of the 1960s race riots in Detroit and DC are still felt, and the impacts of riots in Minneapolis and other cities will be felt for decades. The deterioration of cities will accelerate. This has nothing to do with race. It has to do with a culture (and political party) that accepts crime and violence to advance “social justice” plus a failure to understand consequences.
I say “failure to understand” consequences since I believe the majority of progressives lack that capacity. Some leaders may pursue policies with full knowledge that violence will occur. In my experience, most Left supporters simply lack the logic to deduce consequences. They believe they hold the moral high ground, so forcing others to their views is, as C.S. Lewis wrote, a tyranny “for our own good.” Progressives believe people will make the “moral” choice (what progressives want), but if not, force of law is justified in compelling compliance.
They believe the “moral” position HAS TO SUCCEED only because they believe it SHOULD work. Think of California mandating electric cars, even as the state faces power blackouts. The consequences are obvious, but they won’t acknowledge them because that would challenge their moral position. When reality intrudes, they’ll blame the other party, or demand more money, or make some other excuse.
Similarly, denouncing violence is (to the Left) a form of racism if the perpetrators happen to be a certain race. A majority of violent crimes are committed by Blacks, but not because of race or racism. When national racism was far worse (1930s to 1960s) the crime statistics were very different. Only when the Left started to “help” in the 60s did the current slide begin. Blacks were targeted by racist politicians, after decades of making advancements (per Thomas Sowell). Now, the Left can either abandon their false morals and admit to causing the problem (continuing policies started by racists), or they can double down and continue making things worse.
To us, this is not about race. But to many on the Left, it IS about race, because prosecuting non-white criminals is not “moral.” One consequence is a culture of violence. A “culture” or set of “moral values” may be associated with certain races, but there’s a difference between decrying that culture, and decrying that race. Now, that culture is expanding. Antifa violence is largely perpetrated by whites, but if their politics are viewed as “moral” then the Left will ignore the violence. And that violence will cause more poverty.
I am very relieved to see Claire’s response to Glenfilthie’s recent racist comments. Not that I doubted for a minute what her response to the racist comments would be, but rather because I was biting my tongue so hard and for so long that it was beginning to hurt. I wasn’t sure if I should respond at all, lest any response to such be considered feeding a bigoted, racist troll. I often feel that such comments should be ignored, since it usually seems that even a reasoned condemnation of, and counter argument to, racist and other bigoted and ignorant views is ineffective, and sometimes even counter-productive. It is often difficult to resist responding, but I felt that I should leave that to Claire and/or more senior members of the Commentariat.
You are a gentleman, Simon Templar. Thank you.
I’ve put Glenfilthie on moderation status and will bring down the ban hammer if he ventures one more comment of that ilk.
Dagr — +100
I chose to ignore because this is Claire’s blog! But, I felt the same way – in agreement with Claire and others. The divide, in my opinion, is not about race. It’s about people who believe the Government should do all the things, versus the People should do all the things. I personally, believe it is The Church’s responsibility to attend to social ills, not the governments. And when I say The Church, I’m talking about followers of Christ, not necessarily religious institutions. For those of different religious persuasions, whether they follow another prophet or no prophet, I still think it is each of our responsibility to help our neighbor and the Government needs to stay out of it. Does that make sense? We humans need to take care of our fellow humans is my basic point. Whatever the Government gets involved in, there is graft and greed, an enormous waste of money and resources. The Government is terrible at “helping” people. Handing out money is not always the solution. Programs are not always the solution. While I agree these things help, they should be initiated and managed at the local level. That’s my opinion anyway.
My most sincere apologies Claire.
I’ll show myself out. Best of luck to you all in the days ahead.
To me it isn’t a gun that kills, it isn’t the SUV that ran those people down, it isn’t the whip that beat that wife, it isn’t the non wealth of a person that makes them steal from others, any more than it is the race of someone that cause them to be evil, what it all comes down to is a line and which side of which people decide to live on it.
“Gradually it was disclosed to me that the line separating good and evil passes not through states, nor between classes, nor between political parties either – but right through every human heart – and through all human hearts……”
Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn
I agree Comrade X. It is a choice each of us makes and therefore, each of us are responsible for our own individual choices regardless of circumstance. I say that not from a position of intellect, but from a position of personal experiences where the easier path would have been to do evil rather than “the right thing”. The right thing is not easy. It could mean being very hungry. It could mean losing one’s job. It could mean being disparaged or ostracized or very unpopular or rejected. And I don’t mean to sound pious at all. I just know that many times throughout my life, I had to make hard choices and it wasn’t fun. It was a lonely path and very difficult. On the other side of most of the difficulties thrown my way, I am more at peace now than I have ever been. I laugh a lot because I find simple things amusing and take joy in the mundane. But, I don’t sugar coat anything and I face harsh realities, sometimes with a sense of humor, sometimes with horror, sometimes with resolve. I’m not sure that makes sense to anyone.
Back to the topic at hand: violence, fantasy, and reality – where does it go from here. I think, and I pray I’m wrong, that things are going to get more difficult for us in America. I don’t really care so much if we are reduced to eating beans three times a day and don’t have the luxuries we’re accustomed to. (We have a joke in my immediate family: What I’ll miss during the Apocalypse! or What’s for dinner during the Apocalypse!). I care about whether or not we take care of one another should civil war break out with a vengeance, or should we experience a deep depression, etc. If we’ve all got our “beans, bullets, and bandaids” lined up, have we got our hearts right? Are we willing to use Wisdom and Restraint or just join in, one group hating and blaming the other group? I’m trying to prepare my heart and get my head straight about what’s really important. I’m finding that to be the more difficult part in all this. What are my values and morals in regards to, for instance, taking another life? Even if it is in self-defense or if it is to protect someone I love. Can I look another human being in the eye, regardless of what they look like, and treat them how I would want to be treated or how they deserve to be treated? A lot to think about anyway.
Racism aside, there are some major errors in fact.
“Most people don’t realize that the vast majority of violent crime is ‘criminal-on-criminal’ type violence. In the real world – drug wars, competing prostitution rings, and organized crime. ”
Besides including an incomplete sentence, there is no evidence offered to support this sweeping claim.
Certainly drug prohibition creates an enormous amount of crime – but that includes the “crime” of possession, robbery to purchase drugs, as well as turf wars. Only the latter can be cleanly characterized as criminal-on-criminal. Possession becomes violent when police arrest and tune up people who the cops claim have verboten plants and chemicals. Robbery of other criminals doesn’t usually pay well, I’ll suggest that most violent robberies are committed by criminals against more or less innocent people.
“Prostitution rings” are bad, tired tropes from 1950s police hagiography shows. Maggie McNeill, a genuine expert on the subject, thoroughly fisks the caricature of “violent pimps.” Well worth the read, her ending sums it up nicely.
“So at the end of the day abusive, controlling pimps who steal whores’ money and give them nothing in return really aren’t that rare after all; they just have government plates on their pimpmobiles and wear uniforms or judicial robes rather than garish outfits with silly hats.”
Name one decently documented example of “competing prostitution rings” producing violent crime. If the documentation uses the word “trafficking” it’s disqualified.
Organized crime is certainly real, but violence is bad for business and profits, and organized crime is all about profit. Of course it happens, but trustworthy information on the frequency is nearly impossible to come by.
A former Gambino family underboss, Salvatore “Sammy The Bull” Gravano, recently lambasted former NY gov Cuomo for killing “more people than the mafia did in this country” with his controversial order to send thousands of recovering COVID-19 patients into nursing homes at the height of the pandemic.”
Here’s a subject matter expert noting that killing 15,000 people is “more than the mafia did in this country.”
I’ll agree on this point: “You have to start at the position that our stats and narratives about crime and punishment are all false. ” I start with these sweeping, unsupported claims.
“A lot to think about anyway.”
+1
“I care about whether or not we take care of one another should civil war break out with a vengeance, or should we experience a deep depression, etc. If we’ve all got our “beans, bullets, and bandaids” lined up, have we got our hearts right? Are we willing to use Wisdom and Restraint or just join in, one group hating and blaming the other group? I’m trying to prepare my heart and get my head straight about what’s really important. I’m finding that to be the more difficult part in all this. What are my values and morals in regards to, for instance, taking another life? Even if it is in self-defense or if it is to protect someone I love. Can I look another human being in the eye, regardless of what they look like, and treat them how I would want to be treated or how they deserve to be treated? A lot to think about anyway.”
These are the real questions that we need to be considering. It is assured that in actual troubles, Our Political And Social Betters (OPASB) will frown up us and make our lives difficult. What should (hopefully not be) assured is that we will do the same thing to ourselves.
After all, the point is to survive whatever crisis may come and have road map back to a civilization and (hopefully better) political system.
On violence and anger…
If you watch/read the news and feel angry about the loss of liberties, your frustration with political leadership is justified, in my opinion (doesn’t mean you’ll resort to violence). But too many watch/read the news and feel anger toward another group (not politicians, but fellow citizens based on race, political beliefs, religion, etc.). The anger is manipulated but the viewers don’t realize it. That’s the point of propaganda, after all. When the media encourages anger toward fellow citizens, that is propaganda. Some in the media MIGHT not realize the damage they cause (they believe they hold the moral high ground, and many so-called journalists aren’t very bright). But arguing their intent or knowledge is moot since the results are the same.
Combine that propaganda with decades of dehumanization and you have a recipe for violence. The decades of one side calling the other fascists, Nazis, homophobes, racists – anything to avoid describing them as fellow human beings. The effects are known from indoctrination, referring to the enemy using slurs to help draftees view them as less than human. To divide “us” and “them” by defining “them” as immoral and undeserving of humanity. I’ve seen even self-proclaimed pacifists ignore or even justify violence (mostly peaceful protests).
The manipulated anger on the Left is understandable. It is abhorrent and wrong and a bunch of other things. But the anger and resulting violence were both foreseeable and predicable. And it will only get worse. The question is, what will happen.
Although I expect a collapse, I wonder about the speed at which it may occur, a slow burn or something fast. A major event (EMP) would have a simultaneous effect on the entire nation. A currency collapse would impact the entire country. But I wonder that the effects would be the same everywhere, at the same time?
Suppose inflation goes to a couple thousand percent a year, like Venezuela. Baltimore and Seattle might collapse overnight. But what about Boise or Lubbock? Refugees might start fleeing Chicago within a day, but what about Casper Wyoming?
This nation is enormous, with huge cultural differences, and huge differences in dependency on government and infrastructure (self-sufficiency). When the SHTF, whether all at once or over a period of months, I find it hard to believe that every place would be impacted to the same degree, at the same time. Assuming a slower burn, cities like Baltimore and Chicago may be the canary in the coal mine for the rest of us.
Nothing is predictable, but I suspect many readers follow the “canary” theory for at least some potential futures. Oddly, those cities, with their disdain for flyover country, depend on others for food, waste disposal, energy, and more. Metropolitan areas don’t grow their own food, dispose of their own garbage or sewage, produce their own electricity… they rely on rural areas for basic needs, often areas in other states. In many cases, the city dwellers depend on people they’ve been taught to hate.
Not sure where I’m going with this, but it’s something I’ve been mulling over recently.
The thing I always think about is that when/if things get really horrible, the big cities will start emptying outward – on foot, in cars, etc. – looking for food and shelter. I have a rule of thumb for myself, which is to be at least more than a full gas tank *away* from any of the violent big cities – any big city for that matter. That doesn’t guarantee safety, but it does give one time to know if gangs or groups are on the way. I don’t like to think about it, but I should – what will be my response when groups of people show up at the gate? My property is fenced and topped with barbed wire due to animals and predators, gated, etc., but it’s an easy thing to maneuver around if one were determined. I have decided to start carrying while out and about the property. Something I haven’t done. I also want to get some sort of scanner or ham radio set up going. It just seems to be above my ability to implement, at the moment. There’s a lot to that… charity vs protecting oneself from violence.
Your last question…
“One thing is inarguable: Violent war is being brought to us by violent pawns and their well-insulated chessmasters. Does anybody disagree?”
…brings to mind the following definition from “Stand on Zanzibar” by John Brunner.
(IMPOSSIBLE Means: 1 I wouldn’t like it and when it happens I won’t approve; 2 I can’t be bothered; 3 God can’t be bothered. Meaning 3 may perhaps be valid but the others are 101% whaledreck.
–The Hipcrime Vocab by Chad C. Mulligan)
We can hope that God disagrees.
The violence you fear is closer than you think, because the scum at the top has vastly underestimated the tolerance of the normies and shown a gross lack of understanding of who they are. Any Mafia Boss knows that you can get away with anything so long as you don’t disturb the normies. Don’t mess with their families, property, or finances and you can conduct whatever illicit business you care to, because they don’t see the value in disturbing their day-to-day to interfere.
The scum that have risen to the top of this country’s government have no such reservations; they see our children as fodder for their wars, Guinea Pigs for their social experiments, and Petri Dishes for their medical adventures. They see our property as tax- revenue generating items that they can seize on a whim should they see a use that better profits them. And finances? We work harder and harder for THEM as they waste our money on whatever ridiculous project better fills their own coffers.
Our protests are ignored, our calls for reason are scoffed at, and our attempts at legislating are outmaneuvered and stifled because the mechanics of our day-to-day living prevent us from studying the game well enough to become proficient at dealing with them. Moreover, they level the most absurd reasons for doing what they do (“We have to pass the bill to find out what’s in it.”) and do so because they view us as cattle; stupid, indifferent, and worthy only to be used as food.
Their mistake is that they ignore the lessons of history. They think that we’re intimidated by their rioting foot soldiers in the big cities, and their threats of persecution for the inexcusable acts of attending school board meetings and voicing our concerns.
They have grievously misunderstood what they are dealing with.
The black-clad, rioting, whiners running amok in urban areas are merely children having a tantrum. And like all children, if they are not stopped and disciplined, their tantrums increase in volume and intensity until they become destructive. Note how they avoid areas where the citizenry is heavily armed and law enforcement has stated their intolerance for such antics.
On the other hand, the anger of the ‘average’ citizen is the seething and simmering hatred reserved for the rapist, the child molester, the abusive cop, or the rich hypocrite that flaunts his privilege and mocks those that are not so fortunate.
And when the anger reaches a flashpoint, the results will be Biblical in its proportion. The French Revolution will be as a garden party by comparison. Think The Balkans in the nineties. On steroids.
One must do the math, and always choose what’s so, over what “should be”.
No matter how ugly that truth may be.
No matter how anethema to your nature it may be.
No progress can be made by throwing the data out in favor of the theory it appears to refute.
The quality of your life is governed by the rapidity with which you can *choose* what’s there.
We are under attack by a religion.
This is a religious war.
I call it “leftoxenomorphism”
It’s practitioners, the leftoxenomorphs, I propose, have left humanity behind by degenerating into a sub-human species of leftists that they are barely humanoid albeit looking human because their minds have irrecoverably turned to evil and unreason and are no longer for humanity in any significant way but against humanity and bent on our destruction.
Leftoxenomorphism is the degradation of decency, the debasement of humanity, the making the normal vile while evil abnormality is raised and praised.
Leftoxenomorphism is elevating “A is non-A” into the epitome of truth and value.
Leftoxenomorphism is claiming we can not know what any “A” is.
Leftoxenomorphism is claiming there is no objective reality.
Leftoxenomorphism is claiming we can not think because we have a brain.
Leftoxenomorphism is claiming we can not see because we have eyes.
Leftoxenomorphism is claiming we can not hear because we have ears.
Leftoxenomorphism is claiming we can not touch because we have a skin.
Leftoxenomorphism is claiming we can not smell because we have a nose.
Leftoxenomorphism is claiming we can not taste because we have a tongue.
Leftoxenomorphism is claiming we don’t have a civilization because Western civilization is evil.
Leftoxenomorphism means the denial of individual rights.
Leftoxenomorphism means the denial of private property.
Leftoxenomorphism is claiming we can not determine the sex of a baby at birth.
Leftoxenomorphism is claiming we can not say there are only two sexes.
Leftoxenomorphism is the claim that there are tens and even hundreds of sexes because any fantasy needs to taken at face value.
Leftoxenomorphism is claiming there can be no private property unless everybody magically has the exact same as everybody else.
Leftoxenomorphism is decrying racism while enshrining it as the moral right of some.
Leftoxenomorphism is decrying sexism while enshrining it as the moral right of some.
Leftoxenomorphism is decrying slavery while enshrining it as a way of life for some.
Leftoxenomorphism declares that if you produce something that is not yours but if you need something it should be magically given to you.
Leftoxenomorphism is making things up out of thin air and claiming any fantasy is reality while denying the obvious reality that is plain for all to see.
Leftoxenomorphism is the pretense than anything you can think of is a “social construct”
Leftoxenomorphism is the pretense that anybody can self-identify as anything it pretends to be and has to be taken seriously.
Leftoxenomorphism is pretending some words to be taken at face value without any proof or evidence.
Leftoxenomorphism is claming the good is evil and evil is good.
Leftoxenomorphism means that the fantasies of some take preeminence over the rights of others.
Leftoxenomorphism means that the satisfaction of the need of some requires the slavery of others.
And the above list by no means ends there but it serves to light the truth that leftoxenomorphism is the worst evil we have ever faced.
Leftoxenomorphism today governs Venezuerica, the remains of the late Constitutional Republic the United States of America (July 4th, 1776 – November 3rd, 2020) murdered by leftoxenomorphs through “The Steal” by the removal of the consent of the governed.
And leftoxenomorphs are winning.
And Western civilization is dying.
I have noticed a disturbing feature in the youhg. They’re gamers. (some say larpers) I do see the need to *escape* clown world. If all you’ve ever known is clown world, perhaps you’d think that’s all there is, and that you need to escape reality itself. They seem to see a merger of humans and machines as normal, unavoidable even, and a path to immortality.
If you think machines can improve “who you are”, then this merger would make you super-human, if you don’t, then perhaps sub-human. Either way, their written works make it clear they see this as speciation. (morlocks?)
This idea strikes me as a natural progression of the modern idea that our brains are chemical machines, following deterministic (if somewhat random and chaotic) laws of physics. This view effectively denies free will, and implies that people can be deterministically controlled like (as?) machines. This could explain the elite’s behaviour and confidence.
So far, I assert, no man made machine has exhibited anything vaguely akin to consciousness, yet the theory that such can (will?) “emerge” as some magical degree of complexity is achieved seems almost universal among the less than faith driven (until you see this view *as* faith).
I don’t have much faith, but this theory is *completely* untested at best, or at worst, it has already failed all tests.
At present, I lean towards Roger Penrose’s theory that our brains may be less computer, and more antenna. He suggests that microtubules giving neurons their structure are capable of quantum interaction (see his wiki page under “Physics and consciousness”) This theory suggests what we have an existence apart from our bodies, and are not entirely physical in nature. Penrose argues quite persuasively that known laws of physics are provably insufficient to explain consciousness.
I suspect that Artificial Intelligence is as “human like” {Turing test} as it is ever going to be. Note that the Turing test involves human judgment, so it’s measure can change as much by degradation of humans as by improvements in AI.
If you believe in objective reality, get out of the cities, yesterday.
FRONT_TOWARD_ENEMY —
I can go along with most of what you say. But this is both wrong and dangerous:
Calling people subhuman has never led to anything good in the entire known history of mankind. It’s always been the tool of those who wish to commit genocide, from Elizabeth I and Cromwell against the Irish to Hitler against the Jews.
It’s also wrong. You have no evidence, nor will you ever find any evidence, that the enemies of freedom and Western culture are subhuman. Ill-educated? Indeed. Living in fantasy worlds? Sure. Totalitarian? Absolutely. Cruel or at least cruelly indifferent? Absolutely. Determined to destroy us? Oh my. People that we will eventually have to overcome? Yes.
But please don’t come here with “subhuman” unless you have multiple genetic studies to back you — which you never will. It’s a very, very dangerous excuse for thinking.
Your attitude is why we lost America.
And why we’ll keep losing at every turn.
The difference is not genetic. It is moral.
If we don’t properly identify the enemy we’ll never have a chance at winning.
I stand by every word.
“But please don’t come here”
It’s your blog.
I won’t.
and this is why we’re divided , we are all one people, there is no us versus them. we need to come together instead of making enemies of our brothers and sisters. If we keep asking for it, it WILL come. How can we come together, this is what we need to focus on. Nothing wrong with being prepared but the more people give up and decide we can change NOTHING the worse it will be.
Are you suggesting dissent is not possible? Clearly there are forces attempting to divide us, many of which are of less than honest origin. Also clearly, one of those forces is the force of reason.
We retain free will, until we relinquish it, which we do of free will. Arguing with lemmings that we are all one and should unite, may not offer an attractive prognosis.
We are who we are, and what’s so, is so. If we retain free will, perhaps we can change who we are. We cannot change what is so, only our understanding of it, and possibly some of what will be so.
We “need” to come together, instead of making enemies of our brothers and sisters, but making our enemies into our brothers by changing the definition of “enemy” does not bode well for the future.
In short, yes, let’s not nit-pick, let’s bend where we *can* (keeping our principles) to make room for all who will make room for us. Making room for those who make no room for us, is suicidal. In short, you need a plan B for when you are the last man standing in support of your principles.
Should we abandon reason, simply because we can find no like minded people if we don’t?
Can truth be found by voting?
Is there no objective truth?
Fido, you do you, as for me, I’ll be dead before all this doom and gloom comes to pass or soon after. I dispair for my Grandkids and yours.
Yeah, I project. I fight it, but t’s our nature.
I too am old. I’ve outlived all my friends and relatives save the very few of the next generation, and half expect to outdo them as well, out of sheer disciplined conviction, and deeply cultured tolerance to pain and elements. I seem driven only by the fleshly call to survive, and the spiritual call to defend my honor and thereby my self respect. While I don’t abide despair, our progeny’s prognosis leaves me hard and humorless, and makes the pain easier to dismiss. I do the best I know how, but must wait for them to catch up, if they so choose.
We all (nearly) couch our words to avoid being pidgeon-holed and dismissed, or to avoid disenfranchising and fragmenting our already divided bretheren. Those who don’t, find the door. Even many who do are drawn to it. Reason has fallen from fashion, and with it diplomacy, argument, and eventually dialog itself. I’ve lost interest in my feelings, and only notice them when I feel the tears fall.
I have lost interest in distractions… games, fiction. It no longer seems safe to drink, or even be so focused as to lose awareness of immediate surroundings, which is my nature. I don’t know where we’re going, but we’re going through hell, and must say alert and keep moving. Or maybe that’s just me projecting again, a drive not shared by all. Not sure I care, though I do still care deeply about the truth. … I wonder why…